Becerra leads California governor race by 27 points as anti-Trump sentiment surges
Xavier Becerra holds a 27-point lead over Steve Hilton in the California governor race, with 61% of likely voters supporting him. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows that opposition to the Trump administration has overtaken cost of living as the primary voter concern. While Becerra is poised to become the first elected Latino governor in 150 years, most voters doubt this historic milestone will significantly alter racial inequalities or ease community fears.
Key points
- Becerra leads Hilton 61% to 34% among likely voters, a slight increase from the 25-point margin recorded in September.
- 40% of likely voters cite pushing back against the Trump administration as their top priority, surpassing the 34% who prioritize reducing the cost of living.
- Becerra’s favorable rating stands at 53%, while Hilton’s unfavorable rating reaches 56%, despite negative campaigning efforts.
- 52% of Latino voters and 58% of all likely voters believe electing a Latino governor is not important for addressing racial inequalities.
- The poll was conducted from October 19 to 25, surveying 1,477 likely voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Background
Recent polls have shown fluctuating margins in the California governor race. A September PPIC poll indicated a 22-point lead for Becerra, while an early October survey commissioned by Hilton’s campaign suggested the race had tightened to a 5.6-point margin with 14% of voters undecided. However, the latest UC Berkeley data suggests the race has widened again in Becerra’s favor. Broader national trends in September 2026 also highlighted inflation and economic concerns as dominant voter issues, aligning with the cost-of-living focus seen in earlier California surveys.
How outlets are covering it
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental attributes the shift in voter priorities to recent federal actions, including immigration raids and investigations into voting integrity, which have energized Democratic support. In contrast, Fox 26 highlights Steve Hilton’s efforts to address affordability through a $3-per-gallon gas giveaway in Sanger and proposals to cap vehicle registration fees at $73. While the UC Berkeley poll emphasizes the dominance of anti-Trump sentiment, Hilton’s campaign focuses on tangible economic relief measures to counter the narrative that Democrats are out of touch with financial struggles.
Why it matters
The outcome will determine whether California elects its first Latino governor in 150 years, a milestone that carries symbolic weight but limited practical expectations among the electorate. The shift in voter priorities from cost of living to federal policy opposition indicates that national political dynamics are influencing state-level decisions. This trend may impact future Democratic strategies in heavily blue states, where unifying voters against federal policies proves more effective than addressing local economic concerns.
What to watch
Voting concludes on November 3, 2026. If Becerra wins, he will replace Gavin Newsom as governor. The election results will also determine the outcome of Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% tax on approximately 200 billionaires, which remains a contentious issue among California voters.
- Becerra widens lead in governor’s race as voter focus shifts to Trump, new poll shows Los Angeles Times
- Steve Hilton Tries Anything as a G.O.P. Long Shot in California The New York Times
- $3 a gallon, 150 cars: Hilton’s Sanger fuel giveaway put affordability in gear KMPH Fox 26
- Steve Hilton holds rally at Fresno's Woodward Park as gubernatorial race enters final days ABC30 Fresno
- California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton tells voters 'it's OK to vote Republican'; touts homelessness plan ABC7 Los Angeles
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