Berkeley Poll Shows Raman Leading Bass by 11 Points in LA Mayoral Race

Key points

• Raman leads Bass 39% to 28% in a UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll conducted Sept. 15-20 with 2,150 likely voters.
• 33% of likely voters remain undecided, a high number attributed largely to the 26% of primary voters who supported eliminated candidate Spencer Pratt.
• Bass faces a 63% unfavorable rating, compared to Raman’s 39% unfavorable rating; 40% of voters view Raman favorably.
• Raman holds a significant advantage among voters aged 18-49, while Bass leads voters aged 65 and older by 20 points.
• Bass’s campaign criticized the online-only methodology, arguing it undercounts working-class and non-English speaking communities.

Background

This runoff follows a June 2 primary where Bass finished first with 34% and Raman second with 29%. In late August, the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) endorsed Raman, a move that sparked internal debate within the party due to her previous stances on issues like the mansion tax. Bass’s campaign has also targeted Raman’s DSA affiliation, while Raman has gained support from local unions including the carpenters’ union and Unite Here Local 11.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasized the 'stunning' nature of Raman’s lead and highlighted Spencer Pratt’s social media posts claiming he predicted this outcome, framing the race as a victory for the left over the establishment. The Los Angeles Times focused on the structural reasons for the high undecided count, specifically the Pratt voters, and detailed the geographic and generational splits, noting Bass’s struggles with the 2025 Palisades fire response. NBC Los Angeles included analysis from USC Professor Dan Schnur, who argued that Raman’s success is driven by a desire for 'dramatic change' among younger voters rather than strict ideological alignment with the DSA. Bass’s campaign, represented by spokesman Alex Stack, dismissed the poll as an 'outlier' that miscounted the primary, arguing that online surveys fail to capture the turnout of working-class and senior voters who typically support the incumbent.

Why it matters

The Los Angeles mayoral race is a key indicator of shifting political dynamics in major blue cities, particularly regarding the appeal of progressive candidates like Raman versus traditional Democratic establishment figures like Bass. The high number of undecided voters suggests the outcome remains volatile, with the potential for late-breaking shifts to determine the next mayor of the nation's second-largest city.

What to watch

Mail-in ballots are scheduled to be sent out starting October 1, with the general election on November 3. Both campaigns are expected to intensify efforts to mobilize the 33% of undecided voters, particularly the former Spencer Pratt supporters, in the final weeks before the election.