Carney Signals Willingness to Wait for New US President if Trade Talks Fail

Key points

• Carney affirmed he would not sign a deal 'just for the sake of it' and is willing to wait for a future US president if necessary.
• US National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett described the two nations as 'very close' to a resolution, citing recent intensification in talks.
• Canadian officials reported 'limited progress' on Section 232 tariffs, specifically regarding 50% levies on steel and 25% on autos.
• Trump recently exempted certain agricultural and forestry products from tariffs, a move aimed at aiding Republican candidates in Maine.
• Canada previously imposed retaliatory tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of US goods, targeting states that support the President.

Background

This development follows a broader trend of Canadian diversification away from US reliance, including a recent record-breaking trade and defense pact with the UAE. Earlier coverage noted that Ottawa’s resilience has begun to crack the US trade hardball strategy, particularly as border states feel economic strain ahead of the November midterms. The current friction also occurs against a backdrop of global defiance toward US diplomatic leverage, where allies are increasingly seeking independent security and trade arrangements.

How outlets are covering it

Outlets present conflicting assessments of the negotiation status. The New York Post, citing White House officials, characterized the deal as 'very close' and noted that Trump believes a resolution could occur before the November 3 elections. Conversely, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider Africa reported that Canadian officials see 'limited progress' and that Carney remains skeptical of immediate success. While the White House emphasizes momentum, Canadian sources highlight that core disputes remain unresolved. Additionally, Business Insider Africa noted that Canada strategically selected US goods for retaliation to maximize political impact, a tactic not emphasized in other reports. The New York Post also highlighted the political liability of the trade war for Republican candidates in border states like Michigan and Maine, a factor driving the recent partial tariff exemptions.

Why it matters

The outcome of these negotiations will determine the stability of the largest bilateral trade relationship in North America. A failure to reach a deal before the US midterms could solidify a long-term trade war, while a resolution may alleviate economic pressure on border states. Carney’s willingness to wait for a new administration signals a shift from immediate capitulation to a long-term strategic posture, potentially altering the power dynamic in future US-Canada relations.

What to watch

Negotiations between US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Canadian Minister Dominic LeBlanc are expected to continue in the coming weeks. The US midterm elections on November 3 will likely serve as a deadline or catalyst for a potential deal, as Republican candidates in border states face pressure from the ongoing trade dispute. If no agreement is reached, Carney has indicated he will maintain the status quo until a new US administration takes office.