Cook Report Downgrades South Carolina Senate Race as Graham Faces Andrews

Key points

• Cook Political Report shifted the South Carolina Senate race classification from 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican' on Wednesday, September 23.
• Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham’s death, is still considered the 'heavy favorite' but faces increased vulnerability.
• The reclassification is part of a broader trend where three Senate races, including Kansas and Georgia, shifted toward Democrats due to President Trump’s unpopularity and rising costs of living.
• Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician from Charleston, is campaigning on healthcare rights and fiscal responsibility, arguing Graham is relying on family name recognition rather than merit.
• Graham’s campaign emphasizes her connection to everyday voters, with gubernatorial nominee Alan Wilson urging unity behind her in the final six weeks before the election.

Background

South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. The current seat was held by Lindsey Graham until his death on July 11, 2026, after which his sister Darline Graham was appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster. Darline Graham won the Republican nomination in an August 25 runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman with 52.5% of the vote, a victory attributed to strong support from President Trump and high turnout in the Pee Dee region.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post highlights the national context of anti-incumbent sentiment and Trump’s declining popularity as drivers for the Cook Report’s reclassification. WIS News 10 focuses on the aggressive campaign tactics, noting Graham’s characterization of Andrews as a 'radical liberal' and Andrews’ counter-attack that Graham is 'unprepared' and relying on her family’s legacy. WFAE 90.7 emphasizes the historical barrier Andrews faces, noting the 28-year gap since a Democrat last won the seat, while framing her platform around healthcare and reproductive freedom. The Yahoo source provided no substantive content due to technical errors.

Why it matters

The reclassification signals a potential shift in a traditionally safe Republican seat, reflecting broader national trends of voter dissatisfaction with the current administration. A loss for Graham would mark the first time a Democrat has won the South Carolina Senate seat since 1998, potentially altering the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

What to watch

The campaign enters its final six weeks with intensified advertising and direct attacks. A debate is scheduled for October 11, 2026, where both candidates will present their platforms. The general election is set for November 2026, with the outcome potentially influencing the overall control of the U.S. Senate.