Cook Report Shifts Deep South Senate Races to Democrats Amid Midterm Spending Surge
The Cook Political Report shifted the Mississippi and South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats, reflecting deteriorating Republican prospects in the Deep South. This move coincides with a massive spending surge, as billionaire donors and party committees deploy hundreds of millions of dollars in the final weeks before Election Day.
Key points
- The Cook Political Report moved South Carolina from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican' and Mississippi from 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican.'
- Democrats are responding with targeted ad buys, including a $1.2 million campaign in Mississippi against incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith.
- Billionaire Mike Bloomberg has committed over $80 million to support Democratic House candidates, while President Trump pledged $400 million for Republican efforts.
- The Republican National Committee reported nearly $100 million in cash on hand, deploying $50 million to candidates following a Supreme Court ruling loosening spending limits.
- The shifts are attributed to candidate quality and national economic discontent, though Republicans remain favored in Minnesota.
Background
Since September, the Cook Political Report has progressively downgraded Republican prospects in the South, having previously moved South Carolina from 'solid' to 'likely' Republican. Recent shifts in House races toward Democrats in red states like Ohio and Kansas suggest a broader trend of voter frustration with the economy. Democrats are currently favored to win the House, but Senate control remains a close race, with Republicans retaining a significant financial advantage.
How outlets are covering it
The Washington Post emphasizes the Democratic momentum in the Deep South, highlighting the $1.2 million ad buy in Mississippi and the broader spending blitz by Mike Bloomberg. CNN focuses on the financial dynamics, noting the RNC's $50 million deployment and the record-breaking ad spending driven by billionaire donors on both sides. The Cook Political Report itself attributes the shifts to candidate quality, noting that while Democrats have expanded into red territory, the races remain competitive due to unique local factors. CNN also highlights a counter-move in Minnesota, where the race shifted toward Republicans, contrasting with the Southern shifts.
Why it matters
These shifts indicate that national economic discontent is eroding Republican support in traditionally safe states, potentially altering the balance of power in the Senate. The massive influx of money from billionaires and party committees suggests that the final weeks of the campaign will be defined by intense advertising and voter outreach, with the outcome of these Deep South races potentially determining which party controls the Senate.
What to watch
The Senate Majority PAC is expected to continue spending in Mississippi, while the RNC will likely deploy its remaining cash reserves to key battlegrounds. The Cook Political Report will monitor polling in South Carolina and Mississippi to see if the shifts hold or if the races revert to Republican favorites. The Supreme Court ruling on coordinated spending will continue to influence how party committees allocate funds in the final weeks before Election Day.
- Cook moves Mississippi, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats The Washington Post
- Midterm election updates: Cook Political Report shifts two races toward Democrats and one toward Republicans CNN
- Candidate Quality Shifts the Senate Map: South Carolina and Mississippi Toward Democrats, Minnesota Toward GOP Cook Political Report
- Cook Political Report shifts 2 Senate races toward Democrats, 1 toward GOP The Hill
- Cook Political Report shifts Minnesota Senate race toward GOP while South Carolina race moves left Washington Examiner
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