Cooper widens lead in NC Senate race as Trump approval hits historic lows

Key points

• The WRAL/WSOC poll shows Cooper leading Whatley by 14 points (54% to 40%) among likely voters, while the ECU poll shows a 7-point lead (50% to 43%).
• Trump's approval rating in North Carolina has dropped to 37% in the WRAL/WSOC poll and 40% in the ECU poll, with disapproval rates exceeding 57%.
• The Whatley campaign has stopped running television ads, and the Senate Leadership Fund has redirected funds away from the race.
• Cooper leads significantly among Black voters (82% to 10% in ECU poll) and women, while Whatley holds a lead among white voters and men.
• Early voting begins this week, with Election Day set for November 3, 2026.

Background

This race is for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican Thom Tillis, who did not seek reelection after opposing the 2025 spending bill. Tillis's departure created an opening for Democrats in a state that has not won a federal office in nearly two decades. The current environment reflects a broader national trend where Trump's low approval ratings are impacting down-ballot races, as seen in other competitive states like Kansas and Ohio.

How outlets are covering it

Polling data varies slightly by source but consistently favors Cooper. WRAL/WSOC reports a 14-point lead, while ECU shows a 7-point lead, and Carolina Forward notes a double-digit lead for the first time. All sources agree on the decline in Trump's popularity, with WRAL/WSOC citing 37% approval and ECU citing 40%. The Whatley campaign argues the race will tighten as undecided voters are courted, while Cooper's team emphasizes the national Democratic advantage. Analysts note that the lack of a late surge for Whatley is unusual, likely due to the sustained drop in presidential approval.

Why it matters

The outcome of this race could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and signal the strength of the Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms. A Cooper victory would mark the first time a Democrat has won a statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly 20 years, potentially shifting the state's political landscape and influencing future redistricting battles.

What to watch

Early voting begins this week, and the campaigns will focus on undecided voters in the final weeks before the November 3 election. The Whatley campaign is expected to intensify ground game efforts, while Cooper's team will continue to highlight the national economic and foreign policy issues driving voter dissatisfaction.