Detroit’s Empty Lawns Signal a Crisis for El-Sayed’s Senate Bid

Key points

• Organizer Tashawna Gill reports that Black seniors in Detroit retirement communities are returning absentee ballots without marking the Senate race, indicating a lack of interest or trust in El-Sayed.
• El-Sayed attributes the tepid response to the influence of tens of millions of dollars in PAC money, which he says has 'destroyed trust' he built as a public health official.
• Recent polling shows El-Sayed hovering below 80% of the Black vote, a decline from the 86% support his Democratic predecessor, Elissa Slotkin, received in 2024.
• The campaign has spent nearly $14.3 million on paid media in Detroit and Flint, and secured endorsements from figures including Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, and Raphael Warnock.
• Rogers’ campaign has opened a storefront office in Detroit and is actively courting Black voters, with some Democrats fearing that apathy toward El-Sayed may translate into votes for the Republican candidate.

Background

This race is part of a broader pattern in Michigan where Democratic success relies heavily on high turnout in Wayne and Genesee counties. In the 2024 presidential election, Michigan Democrats faced a significant setback when over 101,000 voters, including El-Sayed, voted 'uncommitted' in the primary to protest support for Israel. This move contributed to a loss of the state for the Democratic nominee, a factor that continues to resonate with older Black voters who feel the party failed to support them. The current Senate race is a test of whether El-Sayed can rebuild trust in a community that has historically been a reliable Democratic base but is now showing signs of disengagement.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Michigan Senate race could shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, with implications for national policy. More immediately, the struggle to mobilize Black voters in Detroit highlights deep-seated tensions within the Democratic Party regarding progressive versus moderate priorities, the impact of external PAC spending, and the lingering effects of past political decisions. If El-Sayed fails to energize this key demographic, it could signal a broader vulnerability for Democrats in similar urban centers across the country.

What to watch

El-Sayed’s campaign is intensifying its outreach, with Barack Obama stumping in Detroit this weekend and continued efforts to engage Black churches and community leaders. The focus is on correcting misinformation about his past stances and appealing to younger Black voters who may be voting for the first time. The Rogers campaign is simultaneously working to capitalize on any apathy, with its Detroit office and targeted ads. The next two weeks will be critical in determining whether El-Sayed can reverse the trend of low engagement or if the race will remain tight, potentially leading to a closer contest than anticipated.