Election Day Predictions: A Close Race with Uncertain Outcomes
The 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is extremely close, with both candidates nearly tied in national polls and key battleground states. Reasons to expect a Trump victory include potential polling underestimation of his support, a global trend of incumbent parties losing power, a shift in party identification favoring Republicans, and greater trust in Republicans on key issues like the economy and immigration. Conversely, Harris could win due to her higher favorability ratings, potential polling overcorrection, decreasing salience of inflation and immigration issues, strong voter turnout from her coalition, and late-deciding voters leaning towards her.
- 5 reasons to expect a Harris win — and 4 to expect a Trump victory Vox.com
- The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be. The New York Times
- The US in brief’s election coverage The Economist
- Analysis | The 7 most likely scenarios for Election Day The Washington Post
- 17 political experts share Election Day result predictions MSNBC
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