Final 2026 Midterm Tally Hinges on Tight Senate and Governor Races in Red States

Key points

• The Associated Press has not called four races for US Senate and governor, specifically in Alaska, Kansas, and Mississippi, as of November 5, 2026.
• In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,145 votes with 96% of ballots counted; the state has until November 10 to count provisional ballots.
• In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Dan Sullivan by 637 votes in the Senate race, but the contest may proceed to a ranked-choice round if no candidate reaches 50%.
• Thirty-five House races remain uncalled, though Democrats are poised for a strong majority; some California races involve intra-party contests where the party winner is known but the individual candidate is not.
• In Kansas, Democrat Cindy Holscher holds a lead of less than one percentage point over Republican Ty Masterson in the gubernatorial race, following a historic Democratic Senate win in the state.

Background

This situation follows a broader trend in the 2026 midterms where Democrats secured a historic House majority, potentially their largest since 2009, driven by low approval ratings for President Trump. Earlier coverage noted that prediction markets assigned Democrats an 89-93% chance of taking the House, and the Democratic Socialists of America saw a historic expansion in congressional presence. The current uncertainty in specific red-state races contrasts with the overall national shift, highlighting the resilience of Republican incumbents in certain districts despite the broader wave.

How outlets are covering it

NPR emphasizes the normalcy of delayed vote counting and notes that some California House races are intra-party contests, meaning the party holding the seat is clear even if the candidate is not. BBC highlights the political significance of the Mississippi and Alaska races, noting that a win for Democrat Scott Colom would make him the first black US senator from Mississippi since 1875, and details allegations regarding a confusing ballot in Alaska. AP News provides precise numerical margins and procedural details, such as the lack of an automatic recount process in Mississippi and the ranked-choice voting rules in Alaska, focusing on the technical thresholds for declaring a winner.

Why it matters

The outcome of these few remaining races will define the exact strength of the new Democratic majority in Congress and determine state leadership in key regions. A victory for Democrats in Mississippi and Alaska would solidify their control of the Senate and represent a historic shift in traditionally Republican states. Conversely, a Republican hold in these states would limit the scope of the Democratic gains and maintain a stronger opposition presence in the Senate.

What to watch

The state of Mississippi has until November 10 to count provisional and late-arriving mail ballots, which are expected to be decisive in the Senate race. In Alaska, if no candidate in the Senate or gubernatorial races achieves a 50% majority, the contests will proceed to a ranked-choice tabulation round later in the month. The Associated Press will declare winners only when it is determined that the trailing candidate cannot close the gap, a process that may take several more days for the 35 outstanding House races.