Florida Midterms: GOP Holds Statewide Power, Democrats Break House Supermajority

Key points

• Byron Donalds defeated Democrat David Jolly to become Florida’s next governor, extending nearly 30 years of continuous Republican rule in the state.
• Ashley Moody won re-election to the U.S. Senate, defeating Democratic Socialists of America member Angie Nixon by a margin of roughly two percentage points.
• Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the Florida House, winning 21 seats compared to 13 for Republicans, according to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
• Amendment 3, a constitutional measure to raise the homestead exemption and lower property taxes, passed with about 62% of the vote.
• Several U.S. House races, including Districts 7 and 27, are close enough to potentially trigger recounts, while Darren Soto held District 9 by a margin of less than 1,000 votes.

Background

Prior polling indicated Republicans held leads in Florida’s top statewide races, though the governor’s race was within the margin of error. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Donalds and Moody in October, despite some internal party friction. Donalds had previously distanced his campaign branding from Trump to focus on affordability, but received a massive funding advantage from the presidential endorsement.

How outlets are covering it

The Tampa Bay Times emphasized the historic nature of Donalds’s victory and the local impact of Amendment 3 on county budgets. NBC 6 South Florida highlighted the record number of Black governors serving concurrently, including Donalds, Maryland’s Wes Moore, and Georgia’s Keisha Lance Bottoms. The Miami Herald focused on local Miami-Dade results, noting that Jolly outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 results in Broward and Miami-Dade counties despite losing statewide. WJHG reported on local Panhandle results, confirming the closure of polls and initial outcomes in Bay County and surrounding areas. While outlets agreed on the GOP’s statewide dominance, they differed in emphasis: NBC 6 focused on national historical context, while the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald detailed local fiscal and legislative shifts.

Why it matters

The results confirm the GOP’s continued dominance in Florida’s executive and legislative branches, but the loss of the House supermajority signals a shift in local power. The passage of Amendment 3 will significantly alter state and local revenue streams, potentially forcing cuts to services or increases in other fees. The narrow margins in several congressional races suggest that Florida remains a competitive battleground for Democrats, particularly in South Florida and the Panhandle.

What to watch

Byron Donalds will be sworn in as governor on January 5, 2027. Recounts may be triggered in U.S. House Districts 7 and 27, as well as potentially District 13, where the margin is under 0.7%. Local governments in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties will need to adjust budgets in response to Amendment 3. The Hillsborough County Commission is also set to expand by two seats if a related referendum passes.