GOP Braces for Likely Crushing Midterm Losses

With 64 days until Election Day, the most plausible outcome is a very bad midterm for Republicans—losing roughly 26–35 House seats and 4–5 Senate seats, aligning with postwar averages. Democrats could gain from national conditions and the president’s role, while earlier in the cycle the scenario looked different. The Cook Political Report’s current analysis shapes this outlook and highlights how the landscape has shifted as ballots approach.