GOP spending fails to offset Trump’s historic low approval in 2026 midterms

Key points

• Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, the lowest of his career, with independent voters favoring Democrats by 16 points.
• Democrats lead in Senate races in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, and are neck-and-neck in Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years.
• Republican Super PACs have spent hundreds of millions on advertising but are reallocating funds, such as pulling support from North Carolina candidate Michael Whatley to bolster Kansas candidate Roger Marshall.
• Hispanic voters, who swung to Trump in 2024, now favor Democrats by 52% to 26%, signaling a major shift in the coalition.
• A CBS News/YouGov poll shows Democrats leading the generic ballot by 9 points, a key indicator for House races.

Background

This development follows earlier reports in October 2026 that indicated a 99% probability of a Democratic House majority and a historic low for Trump’s approval at 31%. Previous coverage highlighted Republican efforts to frame the election as a test against 'lunatics' and the impact of economic pain from tariffs and the Iran war on rural voters. The current situation reflects a continued erosion of the 2024 Republican coalition, particularly among Latino and blue-collar voters.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian emphasizes the failure of Republican spending and rallies to counter Trump’s unpopularity, highlighting the strength of Democratic candidates in traditionally red states. CNN focuses on the strategic paths to Senate control, noting that Republicans need 50 seats due to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking power, while Democrats need 51. Both outlets agree on the broad trend of Democratic momentum but differ in emphasis: The Guardian details the specific polling data and voter sentiment shifts, while CNN provides an interactive framework for understanding the mathematical paths to majority control in the Senate. The Guardian also notes the reallocation of GOP funds from North Carolina to Kansas, a detail not highlighted in the CNN summary.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress for the next two years. A Democratic majority in both chambers would likely lead to increased scrutiny of Trump’s policies, potential legislative gridlock, and a shift in the national political landscape. The significant defection of Hispanic and independent voters from the Republican coalition suggests a fundamental change in the party’s base, which could have long-term implications for future elections. The tight Senate race, with key battlegrounds in states like Kansas and Texas, could determine whether Republicans can maintain any legislative leverage or face a full Democratic sweep.

What to watch

The next 30 days will see intensified campaigning, with Republicans likely to continue reallocating resources to the most competitive Senate races. Democrats will focus on turnout in states with large Hispanic populations, such as Texas, to capitalize on the current polling advantage. The final weeks will also bring more polls and analyses of the impact of the Iran conflict and economic conditions on voter sentiment. The outcome of the November 3 election will determine the composition of Congress and the political dynamics for the remainder of Trump’s term.