LA Mayor Bass Faces Historic Defeat Risk as Raman Leads in Polls and Cash

Key points

• A California Poll shows Raman leading Bass 46.7% to 38.8%, with 71.7% of likely voters disapproving of Bass's performance.
• Bass has raised approximately $3.4 million total, compared to Raman's $3 million, but Raman holds nearly $1.4 million in cash on hand versus Bass's roughly $700,000.
• Outside spending is massive: The Western States Regional Council of Carpenters has raised over $10 million for Raman, while the LAPD Protective League has spent nearly $4.8 million for Bass.
• Voter concerns are dominated by homelessness (47.3%), cost of living (41.7%), and housing costs (35.4%), with 66.2% believing the city is heading in the wrong direction.
• Celebrity endorsements are split, with Jane Fonda and Anthony Anderson backing Bass, while Bob Odenkirk and others support Raman.

Background

The current runoff follows a primary where Bass and Raman advanced as the top two candidates. Bass, a former U.S. Representative and California Assembly Speaker, took office in 2021. Her tenure has been marked by significant challenges, including the 2025 wildfires and ongoing crises in housing and homelessness. Previous coverage noted the race as a clash between establishment stability and progressive reform, with Raman proposing an aggressive 100-day plan to overhaul city services. The broader political landscape in Los Angeles has seen shifting voter allegiances, particularly among Latino voters, who have moved away from Bass in recent polls.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times frames the race as a personal struggle for Bass, emphasizing her historical success and the difficulty of recapturing public trust after the 2025 fires. It highlights her reliance on undecided voters. The Los Angeles Times provides a detailed financial breakdown, noting that while Bass leads in total fundraising, Raman has a larger cash reserve for the final days. It also details the massive influence of outside committees, such as the $10 million raised by the Carpenters Council for Raman and the $4.8 million spent by the LAPD Protective League for Bass. CityWatch LA offers a more critical analysis, arguing that Bass's collapse is due to a failure to address basic city services, while questioning whether voters fully understand Raman's progressive agenda. It notes that 41% of voters view Raman as 'extreme,' suggesting a potential ideological realignment in City Hall. USA Today focuses on the celebrity endorsements, highlighting the split in support from figures like Jane Fonda and Bob Odenkirk, and emphasizes the issues of homelessness and affordability as central to the debate.

Why it matters

This election could result in the first defeat of an incumbent Los Angeles mayor in over two decades. The outcome will determine the direction of the city's second-largest economy, influencing policies on housing, homelessness, policing, and public safety. The massive outside spending and polarized polling suggest a deep divide in the city, with voters potentially choosing between stability and radical change. The result may also signal a broader ideological shift in California politics, as the Democratic Socialists of America and other progressive groups gain traction.

What to watch

Voting is underway, with Election Day on November 3. The final days of the campaign will see intense advertising from outside committees, including the $10 million+ spent by Raman's backers and the $4.8 million+ spent by Bass's supporters. Polls will likely continue to show a tight race, with undecided voters playing a crucial role. The outcome will be determined by voter turnout and the effectiveness of the final messaging on key issues like homelessness and housing costs.