Michigan Likely Voters Favor Democrats by 11 Points in Final Poll
A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,011 likely Michigan voters shows Democrats holding double-digit leads in the U.S. Senate, governor, and congressional races. Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by 11 points, while Jocelyn Benson leads John James by 12. President Trump retains a 26-point disapproval gap among likely voters.
Key points
- The poll was conducted from October 23 to November 1, 2026, among 1,011 likely voters in Michigan.
- Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race by 11 points (53% to 42%).
- Jocelyn Benson leads John James in the gubernatorial race by 12 points (52% to 39%).
- The generic Democratic congressional candidate leads the Republican candidate by 11 points (51% to 40%).
- President Trump’s job approval net is negative 26 points, with 60% disapproving and 34% approving.
- Democrats lead among women (58% to 36% for Senate) and voters under 45, while Republicans lead among men and voters 65+.
Background
This data follows recent Times/Siena polls in other battleground states, including Florida, South Carolina, and Minnesota, which showed mixed results for Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Michigan is a key swing state where Democrats have historically held advantages in recent cycles.
Why it matters
Michigan is a pivotal swing state in the 2026 midterms. A 11-point Democratic lead across multiple races suggests a strong chance for Democrats to retain or expand their presence in the state, impacting the balance of power in Congress and state government. Trump’s low approval rating may also influence voter turnout and enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
What to watch
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Final results will determine whether these polling leads translate into actual victories. Late-breaking developments or shifts in voter turnout could alter the outcome, but current data indicates a significant Democratic advantage.
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