Midterm Forecast Shifts as South Carolina Becomes Toss-Up and Democrats Gain Ground in House
Fox News updated its midterm forecasts one week before the election, moving South Carolina to a toss-up and Ohio to a lean Democratic race. Democrats are favored in 48 Senate seats, while Republicans hold 46, leaving the majority uncertain. House projections show Democrats likely to gain control with a floor of 223 seats. Key factors include low presidential approval, economic concerns, and competitive races in traditionally red states like South Carolina, Ohio, and Florida.
Key points
- Fox News moved South Carolina from Lean Republican to Toss-up, with Darline Graham and Annie Andrews tied at 48% in new polling.
- Ohio moved from Toss-up to Lean Democratic, with Sherrod Brown leading Jon Husted 52%-47% in recent polls.
- Democrats are favored in 48 Senate seats, Republicans in 46, with the majority hinging on six toss-up states.
- House forecasts show Democrats likely to win at least 223 seats, with a potential ceiling of 240 on a good night.
- Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, impacting Republican chances in battleground states like South Carolina and Ohio.
Background
Previous coverage indicated the Senate majority was uncertain, with both parties three seats short of a majority. Ohio was already trending Democratic due to economic dissatisfaction, and South Carolina was viewed as a potential Democratic pickup. The Iran war and inflation have become top issues, affecting voter sentiment.
How outlets are covering it
Fox News emphasizes the competitive nature of the Senate, highlighting the role of undecided voters and the impact of Trump’s approval rating. CNN focuses on new polls showing Democratic gains in South Carolina, Minnesota, and Florida, noting that Graham’s lack of name recognition and qualifications are hurting her campaign. Fox Carolina highlights Andrews’ response to a write-in campaign for Ralph Norman, emphasizing her independent stance and focus on healthcare and costs. Outlets agree on the tightness of key races but differ on the likelihood of Democratic success in traditionally red states.
Why it matters
The outcome of these races will determine control of the Senate and House, impacting legislative priorities and policy direction. The shift in South Carolina and Ohio could tip the balance of power, while House gains for Democrats could influence the next Speaker and legislative agenda. Voter sentiment on economic issues and foreign policy is critical to the final outcome.
What to watch
Election Day is on November 3, with early results expected to provide initial indications of control. Fox News will provide live coverage and race calls. The final outcome will depend on voter turnout, undecided voters, and performance in key battleground states.
- Fox News Power Rankings: South Carolina moves to toss-up Fox News
- New polls have more good news for Democrats’ Senate hopes CNN
- Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrats Ahead In Minnesota And Ohio, Republican Leads In Florida Forbes
- What Our New Senate Polls Tell Us About the State of the Midterms The New York Times
- Dr. Annie Andrews responds to write-in campaign for Ralph Norman in US Senate race FOX Carolina News
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