Midterm Polls Show Democrats Gaining in Red States, but Republicans Hold Key Florida Races

Key points

• In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 6 points in the Senate race, while the governor's race between Byron Donalds and David Jolly is within the margin of error at 48% to 44%.
• In South Carolina, the Senate race between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews is a toss-up, with polls showing them tied at 48% or Graham leading by 4 points, despite Trump winning the state by 18 points in 2024.
• In Minnesota, Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya by 14 points, suggesting Democrats have secured a previously uncertain race.
• Fox News ranks the Senate as a toss-up, with Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans in 46, while predicting a Democratic House majority with at least 223 seats.
• Trump's approval rating has dropped to 36%, and Democrats hold advantages on key issues like inflation and gas prices, but Republicans remain competitive in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Background

Earlier polls in September showed the Florida Senate race tied at 45%, and recent Siena polls indicated a 14-point lead for Kathy Hochul in New York. The current polls build on these trends, showing Democrats gaining ground in traditionally red states like South Carolina and Minnesota, while Republicans hold leads in Florida.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times and CNN emphasize the Democratic gains in red states, highlighting the toss-up in South Carolina and the lead in Minnesota. Fox News, however, focuses on the Republican competitiveness in states Trump won by double digits, noting that the Senate is a toss-up and that Democrats may not translate their House lead into a Senate majority. The ECU poll in South Carolina shows Graham leading by 4 points, while the Times/Siena poll shows a tie, reflecting different polling methodologies and results.

Why it matters

The 2026 midterms will determine control of Congress, with the Senate being a toss-up and the House likely going to Democrats. The outcomes in key states like Florida, South Carolina, and Minnesota will shape the balance of power in Congress and influence policy priorities for the next two years.

What to watch

The 2026 midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026. The results will determine control of the House and Senate, with the Senate being a toss-up and the House likely going to Democrats. The outcomes in key states like Florida, South Carolina, and Minnesota will be crucial in determining the balance of power in Congress.