Early Voting Surges Past 41 Million as 2026 Midterms Approach

Key points

• More than 41 million voters have cast early ballots, representing over 30% of the 2022 midterm total, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
• Democrats are leading early voting by approximately 9 to 14 million votes compared to Republicans, according to data from states that report party affiliation.
• Texas has seen over 5.6 million in-person early votes, with total early ballots exceeding 70% of the 2022 turnout, in a competitive Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton.
• Georgia has cast over 2 million early ballots, reaching 58% of its 2022 turnout, with competitive races for governor and Senate.
• Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and a 218-214 House majority; Democrats need net gains of four and three seats, respectively, to reclaim control.
• Voters in 39 states will decide 145 statewide ballot measures, including proposals on voter ID and citizenship requirements.

Background

Recent weeks have seen intense focus on early voting trends, with previous reports highlighting surges in Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia. Earlier data indicated Democratic enthusiasm outpacing Republican turnout in key urban hubs, though experts cautioned that early numbers do not guarantee final outcomes. Texas also faced voter registration backlogs in the days leading up to early voting, adding logistical challenges to the election process.

How outlets are covering it

WESH emphasizes the sheer volume of early ballots, noting that 41 million votes have been cast, with Texas and Georgia leading in turnout relative to 2022. The Source Magazine highlights the partisan divide, citing a 14-point lead for Democrats in early voting and framing the election as a verdict on President Trump’s second term. WORLD focuses on demographic shifts, noting increased participation among Black, Hispanic, and unaffiliated voters, while acknowledging that Democrats are voting at higher rates. KRCG offers a more cautious perspective, with expert Holly Horn warning that polling may not accurately reflect final results and emphasizing that issues like affordability and healthcare will drive voter decisions. Horn also questioned the reliability of party endorsements, noting that no voting bloc belongs to any single party.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will determine control of Congress and shape the legislative agenda for President Trump’s remaining term. With Republicans holding slim majorities in both chambers, Democrats need only small net gains to reclaim power. The high early turnout and competitive races in key states could significantly impact the balance of power in the 120th Congress.

What to watch

Election Day is scheduled for November 3, 2026. In the final days, both parties are expected to intensify their efforts to mobilize voters, particularly in competitive states like Texas, Ohio, and Michigan. Election officials are urging voters to verify their polling locations and identification requirements, while mail-in voters should ensure their ballots are submitted before deadlines. The final results will determine the composition of the 120th Congress and the political landscape for the next two years.