Midterm Polls Show Trump Approval at Record Lows, Fueling Democratic Enthusiasm

Key points

• A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval at 32%, matching his lowest recorded level across both terms, while a Pew survey showed only 30% of Americans approve of his performance.
• Democratic voters are significantly more enthusiastic about voting than Trump supporters; 48% of Harris voters are 'very enthusiastic' compared to 30% of Trump voters.
• Approval among Hispanic voters has dropped to 24%, a record low, after they were a key swing group in the 2024 election.
• Republicans are shifting campaign funds from North Carolina to Kansas as polls show tightening races in both states.
• Only 39% of Republicans are satisfied with the direction of the country, down from 65% at the start of Trump’s second term.

Background

This decline follows a trend noted in early October where Trump’s approval was already at record lows in 39 states. Recent archive coverage highlighted that Democrats were capturing double-digit support from Republican voters in key Senate races, a crossover effect driven by low presidential approval. Additionally, legal challenges regarding taxpayer-funded ads for Trump’s campaign have added to the political pressure, with 86% of Americans opposing such spending.

How outlets are covering it

USA Today and The Daily Beast emphasize the erosion of enthusiasm within Trump’s own coalition, noting that many motivated voters are driven by opposition to the president rather than support for him. Al Jazeera highlights the specific collapse of support among Hispanic voters, who are now twice as likely to favor Democrats. The Guardian focuses on Trump’s public defiance, noting his claim that he is 'doing great' despite the polling data, while also detailing his campaign strategy of holding rallies in states like Nebraska. All sources agree that the current polling environment poses a severe threat to Republican control of Congress.

Why it matters

The midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress, which is crucial for passing or blocking legislation. A Democratic majority in either chamber would significantly constrain Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his term. The current polling suggests a high likelihood of Republican losses, potentially mirroring the 2018 results where the party lost 41 House seats.

What to watch

Republicans are expected to pull funding from less competitive states in the next 7-10 days to focus on battleground races. Trump is continuing a 32-day rally tour to energize his base, while Democrats are leveraging his low approval to drive voter turnout. The final weeks will see a shift in campaign strategy as both parties attempt to influence the outcome of the November 3 elections.