Midterm trifectas bring National Popular Vote compact within reach of 270 threshold

Key points

• The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact currently holds 222 electoral votes from 18 states and Washington, D.C., falling short of the 270 needed to take effect.
• Democrats won full control of governorships and legislatures in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, adding potential votes to the compact.
• Adding the five new Democratic trifectas would bring the total to 283 electoral votes, exceeding the 270 threshold required to activate the agreement.
• Wisconsin Governor David Crowley and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro expressed support for the compact, while Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs declined to commit.
• Legal experts warn the compact may face constitutional challenges, including arguments that it requires congressional approval under the Compact Clause.

Background

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact was introduced in 2006 to circumvent the Electoral College without a constitutional amendment. It gained traction after George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, and again after Donald Trump won in 2016. Prior to the 2026 midterms, 18 states and Washington, D.C. had joined, totaling 222 electoral votes. The 2026 elections marked a significant shift, with Democrats securing control of statehouses in traditionally Republican areas, creating the first realistic path to activating the compact before the 2028 presidential election.

How outlets are covering it

AP News highlights the political momentum, noting that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania governors support the compact, while Arizona’s governor remains noncommittal. Axios emphasizes the legal hurdles, citing Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller’s argument that the compact may be unconstitutional without congressional approval. The National Popular Vote organization stresses the strategic advantage, claiming the compact forces campaigns to focus on every voter nationwide rather than swing states. Yahoo News notes the historical context, pointing out that Republicans have opposed the measure, calling it an 'unconstitutional assault on our democracy,' while Democrats view it as a necessary reform to ensure the popular vote winner becomes president. All sources agree that the 2026 midterms created a unique opportunity, but differ on the likelihood of legislative success and the outcome of potential court challenges.

Why it matters

If the compact activates, it would effectively replace the Electoral College with a national popular vote system for the 2028 presidential election. This would shift campaign strategies from focusing on swing states to targeting voters nationwide, potentially altering the political landscape and the balance of power between large and small states. The outcome could also set a precedent for future constitutional interpretations regarding state compacts and federal election laws.

What to watch

Lawmakers in the five new Democratic trifecta states are expected to introduce legislation to join the compact in early 2027. The success of these efforts will depend on legislative priorities, public opinion, and the willingness of governors to sign the bills. If the compact reaches 270 electoral votes, it will likely face immediate legal challenges in federal courts, potentially reaching the Supreme Court. The outcome of these challenges will determine whether the compact takes effect for the 2028 election or is struck down as unconstitutional.