Midterms Enter Final Stretch as Democrats Lead Nationally and Texas Race Intensifies

Key points

• CNN’s Poll of Polls indicates a 54-45% Democratic lead on the generic ballot, with voters favoring Democrats on the economy and cost of living by 14 and 9 points, respectively.
• President Trump is holding rallies in Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, and Georgia to energize the Republican base, though his approval rating averages 34%.
• In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are in a dead heat, with Talarico leading in some polls despite Texas not electing a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
• Paxton has faced recent controversies, including a report of partying in Dubai with federal fugitives and leaked audio admitting a lack of control over his campaign, while Talarico has faced attacks regarding his faith and past policy stances.
• High gas prices due to the US-Iran war are a major issue for voters; House Speaker Mike Johnson has raised concerns with the White House about Trump’s decision to waive sanctions on Russian fuel sales.

Background

Since September, polling data has consistently shown Democrats widening their lead in the 2026 midterms as Trump’s approval rating plummeted from 52% at his inauguration to the low 30s. This shift, attributed to unpopular policies, tariffs, and the Iran conflict, has set the stage for a competitive election where turnout and mobilization are expected to be decisive factors.

How outlets are covering it

CNN emphasizes the national Democratic advantage and the frenetic campaign efforts of Trump and candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. The Guardian focuses on the 'scandal resilience' of Ken Paxton, highlighting his history of controversies and the financial backing from Elon Musk that sustains his campaign despite tight polls. The Los Angeles Times highlights the impact of immigration enforcement on Latino voters in Texas, noting a shift among former Trump supporters who are now leaning Democratic due to economic and social concerns. The Washington Post notes the active involvement of Senator Ted Cruz in supporting Paxton, including financial and logistical aid, despite Cruz not being on the ballot.

Why it matters

The outcome of the midterms will determine control of Congress and the ability to check or support the Trump administration. The Texas Senate race is particularly significant as a potential breakthrough for Democrats in a traditionally red state, with implications for future presidential elections. High energy costs and immigration policies are driving voter dissatisfaction, making these races a referendum on the current administration's performance.

What to watch

Early voting begins in Texas on Monday. Trump will continue his daily rally schedule through the week. Key events include a get-out-the-vote rally in Detroit and a town hall in Flint for Michigan’s Senate race. The final two weeks will focus on mobilizing voters in red and purple states, with significant spending from both parties to influence undecided voters.