Polls show Democrats holding double-digit lead as Trump approval hits record low

Key points

• The New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 11 points among likely voters, with Trump’s approval at 36%.
• CNN/SSRS polling finds a 10-point Democratic lead in congressional districts, with Trump’s approval at a record low of 32%.
• Voters express broad dissatisfaction with the economy, with 64% disapproving of Trump’s handling of economic issues in the CNN poll.
• Pew Research Center finds 55% of adults expect Democrats to win the House, but the Senate is split, with 48% expecting a Republican majority.
• Trump’s approval has dropped among his base, including 45% approval among non-college White voters and 74% among Republicans, down from 88% in February 2025.
• Democrats are seen as better able to address the economy, cost of living, and foreign wars, but 41% of voters say the country would be better off if Democrats win, while 37% say it would be worse off.

Background

The 2026 midterms are taking place in a context of rising inflation and high gas prices, with the national average exceeding $4 per gallon. This follows a period of unified Republican control of the federal government, which has led to widespread dissatisfaction. Previous polling in September 2026 showed Democrats widening their lead, and in October 2026, the focus shifted to key battlegrounds like Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina. The current polling data reflects a shift in perception, with more voters viewing Democrats as the party of the working class.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times/Siena poll emphasizes an 11-point lead among likely voters and a shift in party perception, with Democrats gaining five points as the party of the working class. CNN/SSRS highlights a 10-point lead in congressional districts and a record-low approval rating for Trump at 32%, noting that 75% of voters see the election as a chance for change. Pew Research Center focuses on expectations, finding that while 55% expect Democrats to win the House, the Senate is split, with 48% expecting a Republican majority. The outlets agree on the Democratic lead but differ in the magnitude and the specific issues driving the sentiment, with CNN emphasizing economic dissatisfaction and Pew focusing on partisan expectations.

Why it matters

The polling data suggests a potential shift in power in Congress, which could impact the administration's agenda. The erosion of Trump's approval among his base indicates a deeper dissatisfaction with economic policies, which could have long-term implications for the Republican Party. The competitive Senate race means that the outcome could hinge on turnout and mobilization in key battleground states.

What to watch

The final two weeks of the campaign will focus on economic issues and voter mobilization. Trump is expected to continue campaigning in red states, while Democrats will emphasize their lead in the House and the potential for a Senate flip. The outcome of the midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress and the ability of the administration to implement its agenda.