Post-debate poll shows California governor race tightening as 14% of voters remain undecided

Key points

• Becerra’s lead over Hilton dropped from 15 points to 5.6 points in a new Wolfson poll.
• 14.1% of voters remain undecided, with 72.5% leaning toward Becerra if forced to choose.
• 58.8% of Californians say the state is moving in the wrong direction.
• Hilton’s favorable rating is 35.5%, compared to Becerra’s 44.1%.
• The poll was conducted immediately after the candidates’ first debate on October 1.

Background

Prior polls, including a September 18 survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, showed Becerra leading by 22 points among likely voters. Recent debates highlighted sharp disagreements on education, taxes, and immigration, with Becerra linking Hilton to President Trump’s policies and Hilton criticizing 16 years of Democratic rule. The November 3 election will determine the successor to term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom.

How outlets are covering it

The California Post and The Guardian emphasize the narrowing gap and Hilton’s populist appeal, noting his focus on high costs and Democratic leadership. The Washington Post editorial argues the race should focus on state problems rather than national politics. EdSource highlights policy clashes on education funding, teacher accountability, and vaccine mandates, where Becerra defended public schools and mandates while Hilton proposed vouchers and criticized union influence. Outlets agree on the tight race but differ on whether Hilton’s strategy is effective or merely a long shot.

Why it matters

The narrowing margin and high undecided rate suggest the race could be decided by late voters and turnout. Voter dissatisfaction with the state’s direction may amplify Hilton’s message, but Becerra’s lead among undecided voters and higher favorable rating indicate he remains the frontrunner. The outcome will shape California’s policies on education, taxes, and healthcare for the next term.

What to watch

Campaigns will focus on undecided voters and swing regions like the Central Valley. Further polling and debate coverage will likely highlight education, cost of living, and immigration. The November 3 election will determine whether Becerra maintains Democratic control or if Hilton’s populist strategy gains traction.