Rogers Admits Canada Tariffs Harm Michigan, Defies Trump

Key points

• Rogers released a 30-second ad stating 'Canada is not our enemy' and urging an end to the tariff war, a direct departure from Trump's 50% tariffs on $20 billion in Canadian goods.
• The ad was coordinated with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, signaling a broader GOP effort to distance candidates from Trump's unpopular economic agenda in competitive states.
• Rogers previously supported some tariffs as necessary for Michigan's manufacturing sector but has now pivoted to oppose the trade war entirely, following a similar break on the Iran conflict.
• Trump dismissed the split, claiming Rogers merely wanted Canada to 'make a deal,' while maintaining that Canada has been 'ripping off' the US for years.
• The move comes as Trump's approval rating among registered voters stands at 38%, with 64% disapproving of his tariff handling, according to recent polls.

Background

Rogers had previously attempted a middle-ground approach, arguing in September that tariffs were necessary to protect Michigan's manufacturing base from cheap foreign imports, while suggesting he could negotiate an end to the trade war. This new ad represents a complete reversal of that position. The shift occurs in a race where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has been leading in polls, partly due to voter backlash against Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and the Iran conflict. Michigan's economy is heavily tied to Canada, with approximately $80 billion in annual trade, making the tariff issue a critical local concern.

How outlets are covering it

CNN and WSJ frame the ad as a significant break from Trump, emphasizing Rogers' shift from supporting tariffs to opposing them. Politico highlights the coordinated nature of the ad with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, suggesting a strategic GOP response to Trump's unpopularity. Axios notes that Rogers has also broken with Trump on the Iran war and previously reversed his stance on the Gordie Howe Bridge, illustrating a pattern of distancing from the president. Trump, however, downplayed the split, claiming Rogers only wanted Canada to negotiate, while maintaining his hardline stance on Canada.

Why it matters

Rogers' break with Trump signals a growing willingness among Republican candidates in competitive races to distance themselves from the president's unpopular policies to protect their own electoral prospects. This could impact the broader GOP strategy in the 2026 midterms, as candidates in key states like Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin face pressure to address voter concerns about high prices and trade wars. The Michigan Senate race is critical for Democrats seeking a net gain of four seats to control the Senate, and Rogers' pivot may influence the outcome.

What to watch

The first debate between Rogers and El-Sayed is scheduled for the day after the ad's release, where the tariff issue is likely to be a central topic. Trump's administration may continue to pressure Rogers to align with the White House's stance, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee may further coordinate messaging to mitigate the impact of Trump's unpopularity on GOP candidates. Voter sentiment on tariffs and the economy will remain a key factor in the Michigan race and other competitive states.