Rubio Tightens 2028 Race as Vance Loses Ground in General-Election Odds

TL;DR Summary
Prediction markets on Kalshi show Marco Rubio narrowly ahead of JD Vance to win the 2028 presidential election (16% vs. 15%), with Gavin Newsom at 11%. Rubio is also favored to win the general election, while Vance remains the GOP nomination frontrunner. Trump privately leans toward Vance but has not endorsed him. UNH polling indicates Vance’s lead over Rubio has shrunk dramatically (from 46 points to about 10), donors like Ken Griffin signal backing for Rubio if he runs, and White House tensions over Vance’s performance underscore a broader scramble in the race.
- JD Vance No Longer Lone 2028 GOP Frontrunner The Daily Beast
- Opinion | Why Vance Still Trumps Rubio The New York Times
- New poll complicates Vance’s status as Trump’s likely 2028 heir apparent Fox News
- Vance’s lead over Rubio narrows in new Republican 2028 poll: Join Friday’s Whole Hog The Hill
- Opinion | Vance vs. Rubio: The Shadow Primary WSJ
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