Siena Polls Reveal Toss-Up in South Carolina, Democratic Leads in Minnesota

Key points

• South Carolina: Darline Graham and Annie Andrews are tied at 48% among likely voters, marking the first high-quality poll in the state.
• Experience Gap: 59% of independents and 62% of Democrats believe Andrews has the right experience, compared to 31% and 35% respectively for Graham.
• Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 54%-40%, despite concerns about her being too far left, as the state leans Democratic on the generic ballot.
• Florida: Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 50%-44%, but the gubernatorial race between Byron Donalds and David Jolly is within the 3.9-point margin of error (48%-44%).
• Methodology: Polls were conducted Oct. 19-26 with 707 voters in SC, 813 in FL, and 752 in MN, with margins of error between 3.9 and 4.3 points.

Background

Recent archive data shows a broader trend of Democratic momentum in 2026, with Trump’s approval rating hitting record lows of 32-36%. Previous polls indicated Democrats were closing gaps in traditionally Republican states like Texas and Ohio, often by capturing support from non-MAGA Republicans. The current polls in South Carolina, Minnesota, and Florida align with this pattern, suggesting that low presidential approval and candidate quality are driving competitive outcomes in red states.

How outlets are covering it

CNN emphasizes the 'astounding' nature of the South Carolina tie, highlighting how Graham’s lack of experience perception is hurting her despite Trump’s endorsement. The New York Times focuses on the statistical toss-up and the broader implication for Senate control, noting that South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate this century. MS NOW provides a broader national context, linking the South Carolina tie to endorsements from former Gov. David Beasley and criticism from Rep. Ralph Norman, while also noting competitive races in Ohio and Texas. Siena Research Institute, the pollster, highlights the South Carolina race as the 'centerstage' battle, noting Graham’s narrow lead is effectively a tie. All sources agree on the raw numbers but differ in emphasis: CNN and NYT focus on the shock value of the red-state results, while MS NOW contextualizes them within a wider national trend of Democratic gains.

Why it matters

These polls suggest Democrats may have a viable path to flipping Senate seats in states previously considered solidly Republican. The South Carolina tie, in particular, challenges the assumption that Trump’s 2024 victory guarantees GOP success in 2026. If Democrats can win in South Carolina, it could shift the balance of power in the Senate. The competitive nature of the Florida governor’s race also indicates that even strong Republican states are vulnerable in this cycle.

What to watch

With two weeks remaining until the election, campaign efforts will intensify in South Carolina, Florida, and Minnesota. Republicans may focus on attacking Andrews’ experience and moderating her image, while Democrats will emphasize Graham’s lack of qualifications. In Florida, the gubernatorial race will likely see increased spending as it remains within the margin of error. Final polls in the next 14 days will determine if these trends hold or if late-breaking changes alter the outcomes.