Sununu and Collins Test GOP’s Ability to Detach from Trump in Northeast Midterms

Key points

• John Sununu is running for his former Senate seat in New Hampshire, emphasizing he is not a 'MAGA Republican' and has never met President Trump, despite receiving his endorsement.
• Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in Maine, relying on her record of securing federal funding and bipartisan cooperation, including a recent visit with former Democratic Senator Joe Manchin.
• Both candidates are avoiding national media and focusing on local 'kitchen-table' issues, a strategy described by consultants as the only viable path for moderate Republicans in these states.
• Polls show Chris Pappas leading Sununu in New Hampshire, while Troy Jackson holds a slender lead over Collins in Maine, though both races remain within the margin of error.
• The Christian Science Monitor notes that these races are part of a broader trend where Northeast Republicans are holding their own against a national Democratic surge by signaling independence from the current administration.

Background

The New Hampshire Senate race has been volatile, shifting from a 'Lean Democrat' to a 'Toss Up' in recent weeks, complicating Democratic hopes for regaining Senate control. Earlier in October, a significant number of Republicans and independents, including former Trump-endorsed nominee Don Bolduc, endorsed Democrat Chris Pappas, signaling deep dissatisfaction with the Trump agenda among moderate voters. Pappas has also prioritized cost-of-living issues over impeachment in his final campaign push. These developments underscore the tension within the GOP between loyalists and moderates trying to survive a national wave of anti-Trump sentiment.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times frames the races as a test of whether Republicans can credibly distance themselves from President Trump in 2026, noting that many pre-Trump party figures have been purged. It highlights Sununu and Collins as central figures in this effort. The Christian Science Monitor provides a more detailed analysis of their strategies, emphasizing that both candidates are using a 'local and detached' approach to win independent voters. The Monitor also notes that while both are endorsed by Trump, neither has invited him or his surrogates to campaign, and Collins has actively courted bipartisan support through figures like Joe Manchin. The Monitor also points out the risks for Collins, including voter frustration over her past votes and the impact of Trump's tariffs on Maine's economy, which some voters blame on her despite her recent efforts to lower agricultural tariffs.

Why it matters

The outcomes in New Hampshire and Maine will serve as a critical indicator of the Republican Party's ability to survive a national 'blue wave' by appealing to moderate and independent voters. Success for Sununu and Collins could help Republicans hold onto key Senate seats and maintain a foothold in the Northeast, while failure could signal a broader collapse of the moderate Republican brand in the Trump era. These races also highlight the growing divide within the GOP between loyalists and those trying to distance themselves from the president's agenda.

What to watch

The results of the New Hampshire and Maine Senate races will be known on November 3, 2026. The outcomes will determine whether moderate Republicans can successfully distance themselves from President Trump and win in Democratic-leaning states. The results will also have implications for the balance of power in the Senate and the broader trajectory of the Republican Party in the post-Trump era.