Talarico’s $64M Q3 Haul Sets Record, but GOP Spending Outpaces Democrat

Key points

• Talarico’s campaign announced raising $64 million from July to September, surpassing the previous third-quarter record of $57 million set by Jaime Harrison in 2020.
• The total cycle fundraising for Talarico now stands at $134 million, with nearly 97% of donations coming from individual contributions of $100 or less.
• Republican opponent Ken Paxton raised $18 million in the same period, a fraction of Talarico’s haul, though Republican outside groups have spent over $175 million to support him since September 1.
• Talarico maintains a slight polling lead over Paxton, but the lead has narrowed recently, prompting increased Republican spending to secure the Senate majority.
• Paxton’s campaign is launching a two-week bus tour in Texas, concluding the night before Election Day, while early voting begins Monday.

Background

The Texas Senate race has become the most expensive non-presidential contest in U.S. history, with projected spending exceeding $500 million. Previous coverage noted that Republican super PACs had injected over $40 million in September to counter Talarico’s lead, reversing earlier hesitation from party donors. The race is also notable for being the first chance for a Democrat to win a statewide Texas office since 1994, with no Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1988.

How outlets are covering it

CBS News and NBC News emphasize Talarico’s record-breaking fundraising and the grassroots nature of his support, highlighting the contrast with Paxton’s lower individual fundraising. Politico focuses on the shift in Republican donor behavior, noting that GOP donors have dropped objections to funding Paxton due to fears of losing the Senate majority. All sources agree on the significant spending disparity, with Republican outside groups outspending Democratic groups by a wide margin, despite Talarico’s polling lead. CBS News also notes Talarico’s recent absence from the campaign trail due to illness and his rebuttal of conspiracy theories, while NBC News highlights the unverified nature of the fundraising figures pending FEC reports.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas Senate race could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, with the GOP currently holding a narrow majority. Talarico’s fundraising success and polling lead pose a significant threat to Republican control, while the massive spending by Republican outside groups underscores the stakes of the race. The contest also reflects broader trends in midterm elections, where fundraising and spending disparities often influence outcomes in traditionally red states.

What to watch

Early voting begins Monday in Texas, with Paxton’s bus tour concluding the night before Election Day. FEC reports are due Thursday night, which will provide verified details on the fundraising and spending figures. Polling will continue to track the narrowing lead for Talarico, and both campaigns will likely intensify their efforts in the final weeks before the election.