Texas Early Voting Hits 4.5M, With Democratic Enthusiasm Outpacing GOP in Key Urban Hubs

Key points

• 4.5 million Texans cast ballots in the first seven days of early voting, representing 23.4% of registered voters.
• Harris County recorded over 127,000 votes on the first day, setting a midterm record, while Dallas County saw over 88,000 votes on day one.
• Voters with prior Democratic primary history accounted for 35% of early ballots, slightly ahead of the 33% from Republican primary voters.
• Hispanic voters made up 18% of early voters, a 2-point increase from 2022, though Democrats aim for 24% of the final vote.
• Total registered voters in Texas reached a record 19 million, a 7.7% increase from 2022.

Background

The 2026 midterms are being closely watched as a potential shift in Texas politics, following the 2018 race where Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Ted Cruz. Previous tracking efforts, such as the live map launched on Oct. 19, have monitored ballot counts without revealing results. The current early voting surge is being compared to the high turnout of 2018, which was driven by a competitive Senate race.

How outlets are covering it

The Texas Tribune and Axios highlight the disparity in turnout between urban and rural counties, with Dallas and Travis counties outpacing Republican-leaning areas like Montgomery and Lubbock. Democratic strategists, such as Matt Angle, view the strong urban and Latino turnout as a positive sign, while Republican consultant Derek Ryan notes that the initial Democratic surge may be driving Republican turnout later in the week. Click2Houston focuses on the record voter rolls and local concerns like education and immigration, noting that while turnout is high, it does not necessarily predict the final outcome. Mark Jones, a Rice University professor, cautions against over-interpreting early numbers due to the lack of party registration data in Texas.

Why it matters

The early voting trends in Texas could signal a shift in the state’s political landscape, particularly in urban areas where Democratic support is strong. However, the lack of party registration data and the incomplete nature of early voting results make it difficult to predict the final outcome. The high turnout in key counties like Harris and Dallas could influence the results of statewide races, including the governor’s and U.S. Senate races, which are expected to be close.

What to watch

Early voting closes on Friday, with a busy day expected as the pace of voting increases. Election Day is Nov. 3. Analysts will continue to monitor turnout in key counties, particularly Tarrant County, which is considered a battleground. The final results will depend on the turnout of the 2.1 million Texans who voted in recent Republican primaries but have not yet voted in the general election.