Texas Election Pulse: Narrow Senate Rise for Democrats, Stronger GOP Governor Lead

A NBC5/Dallas-NBC News poll shows Texas Senate Democrat James Talarico trailing Republican Ken Paxton by 3 points (46%–43%, MOE ±4) with 8% undecided, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48%–41%. Latinos tilt Democratic in both races (Talarico 54%–36%; Hinojosa 52%–39%), but the share of Latino voters may not be enough to flip Texas in 2026. Economic concerns dominate voter priorities; inflation and the cost of living top Hispanic concerns, while social issues like gender-transition restrictions and school bathrooms register at low overall importance. Immigration positions show partisan gaps, with Republicans more supportive of ICE cooperation. The poll surveyed 625 statewide voters, plus 401 Hispanic respondents, conducted Sept. 8–12 by Mason-Dixon; margins vary by subgroup.