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GOP insiders fear a crushing midterm as costs bite voters
politics18 days ago

GOP insiders fear a crushing midterm as costs bite voters

With six weeks left, GOP insiders privately fear a crushing midterm as cost-of-living and high gas prices—gas near $4.50 a gallon, diesel over $6.50—boost voter anger. Public bravado clashes with private warnings that several safe districts could flip; Kennedy campaigns in key states, and Trump is spending tens of millions from his super PAC to aid candidates. NBC and Fox polls show Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, while Republicans pull back to campaign and scramble to limit the damage.

via MS NOW|
#gas-prices#gop#leadership
El-Sayed Gains in Michigan Senate Race as Trump Backlash Helps His Campaign
politics18 days ago

El-Sayed Gains in Michigan Senate Race as Trump Backlash Helps His Campaign

A Suffolk University poll shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 47%-40% in Michigan's Senate race, with 48% of likely voters saying they’re voting to change the direction of President Trump. Trump’s Michigan approval stands at 31%, and voters cite the economy, tariffs on Canada, and concerns about democracy as key issues shaping their choices ahead of a potential Democratic Senate majority.

via USA Today|
#abdul-el-sayed#michigan#mike-rogers
Texas Election Pulse: Narrow Senate Rise for Democrats, Stronger GOP Governor Lead
politics19 days ago

Texas Election Pulse: Narrow Senate Rise for Democrats, Stronger GOP Governor Lead

A NBC5/Dallas-NBC News poll shows Texas Senate Democrat James Talarico trailing Republican Ken Paxton by 3 points (46%–43%, MOE ±4) with 8% undecided, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48%–41%. Latinos tilt Democratic in both races (Talarico 54%–36%; Hinojosa 52%–39%), but the share of Latino voters may not be enough to flip Texas in 2026. Economic concerns dominate voter priorities; inflation and the cost of living top Hispanic concerns, while social issues like gender-transition restrictions and school bathrooms register at low overall importance. Immigration positions show partisan gaps, with Republicans more supportive of ICE cooperation. The poll surveyed 625 statewide voters, plus 401 Hispanic respondents, conducted Sept. 8–12 by Mason-Dixon; margins vary by subgroup.

via NBC News|
#elections#immigration#latinos
Trump’s Data-Center Gamble Divides MAGA and Voters
politics20 days ago

Trump’s Data-Center Gamble Divides MAGA and Voters

Trump has doubled down on data centers and AI, but his MAGA base and a broad swath of voters remain wary or opposed; polls show sizable opposition to expanding data centers, and GOP strategists warn that unqualified support could hurt candidates. Some MAGA figures push back, while analysts say Trump’s stance is tied to perceived competition with China over AI compute, highlighting a split within the party as midterms loom.

via WIRED|
#ai#data-centers#donald-trump
Gas-price pain tests loyalty as voters weigh midterm choices
politics20 days ago

Gas-price pain tests loyalty as voters weigh midterm choices

With gas prices rising and inflation a top concern, voters across states express frustration with the economy ahead of the midterms. Interviews show working- and middle-class Americans blaming Republican leadership while some Trump supporters remain loyal despite discontent; polls also indicate a perception that the economy is worsening and that gas prices are a major problem, underscoring headwinds for Republicans and shaping campaign dynamics on affordability and policy responses.

via AP News|
#economy#elections#gas-prices
Talarico Gains Momentum in Texas Senate Fight as Polls Favor Dem
politics21 days ago

Talarico Gains Momentum in Texas Senate Fight as Polls Favor Dem

ReconMR/Texas Pulse shows Democrat James Talarico up 6 points on Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race (49%–43%), with independents favoring Talarico 64–24 and Paxton’s favorability negative. Among 614 likely voters, 48% expect Talarico to win vs 45% for Paxton (MOE 4.3%), as defections within Paxton’s party and a shrinking undecided pool shape the race ahead of Nov. 3.

via USA Today|
#independent-voters#paxton#politics
Swing-state voters demand Social Security plans as 2032 funding looms
politics22 days ago

Swing-state voters demand Social Security plans as 2032 funding looms

A Peter G. Peterson Foundation poll of 2,500 voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas finds 81% would back candidates with a plan to avoid automatic Social Security cuts; once informed that the trust fund could depleted by 2032, support for reforms rises to 91% across parties and ages. Voters favor measures such as raising the payroll-tax cap, capping benefits for high earners, and gradual tax/benefit tweaks, while borrowing to avert cuts draws less support. The foundation notes rising public awareness but has not endorsed specific reforms, and a proposal to form a commission on Social Security solvency is under discussion.

via CNBC|
#payroll-tax#politics#polls
Miami Republicans push back as Trump immigration crackdown sparks backlash
politics23 days ago

Miami Republicans push back as Trump immigration crackdown sparks backlash

In Miami-Dade, a key Latino swing area, Republicans face rising anger over Trump's immigration crackdown, with Rep. Maria Salazar releasing an ad calling for restraint as GOP support frays locally. Doral businesses report hits after TPS cancellations, reflecting broader economic strains tied to enforcement. Polls show Hispanics in the county historically backing deportations in principle but opposing how removals are carried out, signaling potential turnout challenges for the GOP in the midterms even as some leaders, like Rubio, stay broadly aligned with the administration.

via Axios|
#cuban-americans#immigration#miami-dade
Georgia governor race shifts as Jackson takes lead in new polling
politics23 days ago

Georgia governor race shifts as Jackson takes lead in new polling

A Rasmussen poll shows Rick Jackson leading Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia’s governor race, 48% to 45% with 7% undecided, as early voting approaches. Jackson, a billionaire healthcare CEO, has outspent Bottoms on ads and largely funds his campaign himself, while Bottoms maintains strong Democratic support. The race exhibits gender and age divides (men favor Jackson, women and younger voters lean Bottoms), and voting dates are Oct. 13–30 for early voting, with the general election on Nov. 3 and a possible Dec. 1 runoff if needed.

via USA Today|
#georgia#governor-race#keisha-lance-bottoms
Poll finds California voters back billionaire wealth tax, but Brin-funded countermeasures loom
politics23 days ago

Poll finds California voters back billionaire wealth tax, but Brin-funded countermeasures loom

A Public Policy Institute poll of 1,103 likely California voters shows Prop 40, a 5% one-time wealth tax on billionaires, at 52% in support vs. 46% opposed (2% undecided); however, two Brin-funded measures—Prop 41 (51%) and Prop 42 (54%)—would block or nullify the tax if they receive more votes. Gov. Newsom opposes the billionaire tax, and critics warn it could cost jobs and prompt relocation by the ultra-wealthy.

via New York Post|
#billionaires#california#politics
GOP retools cost messaging as Iran crisis extends past the midterms
politics24 days ago

GOP retools cost messaging as Iran crisis extends past the midterms

GOP lawmakers, led by House Speaker Mike Johnson, have shifted their messaging on rising costs, conceding that higher gas and groceries are tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and may not fall before the midterms. A New York Times/Siena poll shows voters leaning toward Democrats on the economy and cost of living, giving Democrats a potential edge to capitalize on the issue as Republicans acknowledge the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict.

via NBC News|
#gas-prices#gop#iran-war
Talarico Takes Narrow Texas Senate Lead in Post-Convention Poll
politics25 days ago

Talarico Takes Narrow Texas Senate Lead in Post-Convention Poll

A Sept. 13 SoCal Strategies poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45% in Texas’ Senate race after the GOP convention, flipping from a Paxton lead in June. Talarico gains among independents, Hispanics and voters aged 18–29, while Paxton remains strongest among white voters; the analysis notes undecided voters, including some Trump voters, could swing the outcome. The race has trended within single digits in September polls (AARP, Univision) as Election Day on Nov. 3 nears, with several polls signaling a Talarico edge or tight contest ahead of final results.

via USA Today|
#independents#paxton#politics