Texas Senate Race Tightens as Trump Shifts to Virtual Rallies

Key points

• Ken Paxton and James Talarico are in a tight race in Texas, with recent polls showing Paxton leading by one point and Talarico holding a 3.5-point lead in some averages.
• Trump is skipping in-person rallies in favor of virtual tele-rallies in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, Michigan, and Florida, though he reversed course to hold in-person events in Iowa and Kansas.
• Talarico has significantly increased outreach to Black voters, pledging $25 million to the effort and raising his support among that demographic from 67% to 79% since June.
• Early voting totals are nearing 50 million, with Democrats reporting higher early turnout rates than Republicans in Texas.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is campaigning in Virginia, promising aggressive oversight of the Trump administration if Democrats win a House majority.

Background

This race is part of a broader midterm election where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate advantage. Democrats need to win at least four seats to regain control. Previous coverage noted Trump's fluid scheduling, including the reinstatement of in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa after initial cancellations, reflecting the high stakes of tight Senate races in traditionally red states.

How outlets are covering it

AP News emphasizes the national implications of the Texas race, framing it as a measure of frustration with Trump’s leadership. MS NOW focuses on Talarico’s strategic pivot to win over Black voters, highlighting his humility and increased spending on outreach. The New York Times portrays Talarico as a rising political figure whose race could become the most expensive in nonpresidential history. Quantus Insights provides detailed polling data, noting that while Paxton leads slightly, the race is within the margin of error and hinges on independent voters and turnout. Outlets differ on the race’s tightness, with some polls showing Talarico ahead and others showing Paxton with a narrow edge.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is a bellwether for the 2026 midterms, potentially determining which party controls the Senate. The outcome will influence the final chapters of Trump’s second presidency and the balance of power in Congress. Additionally, the race highlights the importance of voter turnout and demographic outreach in swing states.

What to watch

Election Day is approaching, with early voting nearing its conclusion in several states. Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. The final outcome in Texas will likely depend on turnout among independent voters and the effectiveness of last-minute campaign efforts by both parties.