Thune and Barrasso launch final push to hold Senate as GOP faces tight races

Key points

• Thune will visit North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Iowa (twice), Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, and Michigan; Barrasso will focus on Ohio, Montana, Kansas, and Kentucky.
• Republicans face unexpectedly tight races in Ohio (Husted vs. Brown), Michigan (Peters’ seat), Iowa, and Kansas, prompting private concern among GOP senators.
• Thune described the Senate majority fight as a 'jump ball,' citing margin-of-error races and the need for strong execution in the final 35 days.
• Senate Republicans have raised over $500 million through the Senate Leadership Fund, but face headwinds from affordability concerns and a war in Iran.
• Thune confirmed he will run for re-election as Senate Majority Leader after the midterms, with no viable challenger emerging despite frustration from the party’s right flank.

Background

In late September 2026, Senate Republicans faced a strategic dilemma between continuing legislative work and returning home to campaign, as midterm polling worsened. Thune had previously argued for self-sufficient data centers amid energy-cost backlash, but struggled to pass cost-of-living measures. The party’s leadership had also faced criticism for not addressing affordability issues, with some senators like John Kennedy accusing Thune of being 'too cautious.' Trump had committed to a 35-stop campaign push, but internal tensions over the SAVE America Act and other legislative priorities had mounted. The current campaign surge represents the final push to secure the Senate majority in a competitive environment.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasized the detailed travel plans of Thune and Barrasso, highlighting the breadth of their campaign efforts across multiple states. CBS News focused on Thune’s 'jump ball' assessment and the party’s fundraising efforts, noting the $500 million raised by the Senate Leadership Fund. Roll Call highlighted Thune’s confirmation that he will run for re-election as Senate Majority Leader, despite internal frustration from the party’s right flank over his cautious approach to legislative priorities. ABC News 4 focused on Thune’s visit to South Carolina, where the race between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews is tight, reflecting the competitive nature of the 2026 midterms. The outlets generally agreed on the competitive nature of the races but differed in emphasis: Politico and CBS News focused on the campaign strategy, while Roll Call and ABC News 4 highlighted internal party tensions and specific state races.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will determine whether Republicans retain control of the Senate, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber. The competitive races in states like Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Kansas could determine the balance of power in the Senate, affecting the party’s ability to pass legislation and shape policy. Thune’s leadership and the party’s campaign strategy will be crucial in navigating the final weeks before the election, with the outcome potentially influencing future leadership dynamics and policy priorities.

What to watch

Thune and Barrasso will continue their campaign tours in October, with Thune focusing on North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, and Michigan, and Barrasso targeting Ohio, Montana, Kansas, and Kentucky. The Senate will return from recess after the midterms, with the lame-duck session potentially used to pass key legislation. Thune will run for re-election as Senate Majority Leader after the midterms, with the outcome of the election potentially influencing the leadership dynamics within the party. The party will also need to address affordability concerns and other policy priorities in the coming weeks.