Thune Vows to Hold Senate Majority Despite Shifting Funds and Slipping Polls

Key points

• Thune predicts Republicans will outperform polls and retain their slim Senate majority, refusing to concede any tight races.
• GOP-aligned groups, including the Senate Leadership Fund, have shifted millions from Georgia and North Carolina to Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall faces an unexpected challenge.
• In North Carolina, outside funding for candidate Michael Whatley has dissipated, and President Trump expressed concern about his chances against former Gov. Roy Cooper.
• Thune identifies voter turnout, particularly among low-propensity and moderate voters, as the critical factor for winning close races.
• Republicans are defending six toss-up races, while previously safe states like Mississippi and South Carolina have shifted toward Democrats.

Background

This development follows weeks of intensified campaign efforts by Thune and Whip John Barrasso across battleground states. Earlier in October, Republican leaders privately accepted likely House losses to focus resources on Senate survival. The party has faced internal tensions over affordability messaging and strategic decisions on where to allocate over $500 million in campaign funds. Recent shifts in polling have turned previously safe red states into competitive contests, prompting a reallocation of resources from states like Georgia to Kansas.

Why it matters

The outcome of these Senate races will determine whether Republicans maintain legislative control or face a potential Democratic takeover. Thune’s confidence contrasts with the visible retreat of campaign funds from certain states, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the final vote. The ability to mobilize low-propensity voters will likely decide the fate of the chamber, with implications for the next two years of federal policy and legislative priorities.

What to watch

Campaign efforts will intensify in the final week before the November 3 election, with a focus on voter turnout in key states. The Senate Leadership Fund and other GOP-aligned groups will continue to monitor polling and adjust spending based on real-time data. Thune and other Republican leaders will likely make final appearances in battleground states to rally support and address voter concerns.