Florida Amendment 3 Lags at 50% Support, Facing Steep 60% Threshold

Key points

• Amendment 3, titled 'Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments,' has 50% support among 1,471 likely voters, falling short of the 60% threshold required for passage.
• Thirty percent of respondents voted 'no' on the amendment, while 14% stated they did not know how they would vote, creating a critical pool of undecided voters.
• Support for the amendment is higher among registered Republicans than Democrats or Independents, though the split is not strictly partisan; 32% of Democrats support it, and 23% of Republicans oppose it.
• Longer-term Florida residents are more likely to oppose the amendment than recent transplants, contrary to some assumptions about political alignment of new residents.
• In the gubernatorial race, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 2 percentage points (49% to 47%), a race within the margin of error.
• In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 4 percentage points (49% to 45%), with 5% of respondents undecided.

Background

This poll provides a snapshot of voter sentiment in Florida ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Previous coverage in our archive noted similar trends in other states, such as the tightening California governor race where undecided voters played a pivotal role. The current data highlights the competitive nature of Florida's races and the significant influence of undecided voters on both ballot measures and candidate outcomes.

Why it matters

The outcome of Amendment 3 will directly impact property tax burdens for Florida homeowners, particularly those with homestead exemptions. The narrow margins in the gubernatorial and Senate races suggest that turnout and last-minute persuasion will be decisive. The poll underscores the importance of undecided voters and the potential impact of campaign messaging on policy and candidate preferences.

What to watch

Campaigns for both Amendment 3 and the gubernatorial and Senate races will likely intensify their efforts to persuade the 14% of undecided voters on the amendment and the 5% undecided in the Senate race. Turnout strategies will be crucial, as the poll indicates that the success of Republican incumbents depends on matching Democratic enthusiasm and turnout. Further polling and campaign advertising in the final weeks before the election will be critical in determining the final outcomes.