Travis County Midterm Early Vote Surpasses 450,000, Outpacing 2012 Presidential Election

Key points

• Travis County early voting totals exceeded 450,000 ballots, marking the highest midterm turnout since 1998.
• The 2026 midterm early vote surpassed the 2012 presidential election turnout and exceeded the 2022 midterm total by roughly 100,000 voters.
• Election officials resolved a backlog in voter registrations caused by the Texas Department of Public Safety, ensuring the system was updated for Election Day.
• Rice University political science professor Mark Jones attributed the surge to high Democratic enthusiasm and dissatisfaction with former President Donald Trump's policies.
• Texas statewide early voting reached over 6.8 million ballots, with 23 states exceeding their previous early voting records.

Background

This record-breaking turnout follows a similarly historic primary season in 2026, where Travis County saw its highest primary turnout since 2008. Earlier in October, the county set a new record for first-day midterm early voting, coinciding with Texas reaching 19 million registered voters. Nationally, over 54.5 million early ballots have been cast, nearly matching the 2022 total, with Texas leading at 138% of its 2022 figure.

How outlets are covering it

KUT Radio emphasizes the historical significance of the turnout, noting it exceeds the 2012 presidential election and highlighting the resolution of registration backlogs that affected some voters. KEYE focuses on the political drivers, citing Rice University professor Mark Jones who links the surge to anti-Trump sentiment and competitive races, including the U.S. Senate and governor's contests. Both sources agree on the magnitude of the increase over 2022, with KEYE specifying a 100,000-vote jump from the 311,000 early votes cast in 2022.

Why it matters

The unprecedented early voting turnout in Travis County signals a highly engaged electorate in a critical midterm cycle. The surge, driven by competitive races and political dissatisfaction, suggests a potential shift in the political landscape in Texas and could influence outcomes in key federal and state races. The resolution of registration backlogs also highlights the importance of administrative efficiency in ensuring voter access during high-turnout periods.

What to watch

Election Day is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Mark Jones predicts approximately 25% of votes will be cast on Election Day, with most ballots already cast during early voting. Final results will determine the outcomes of competitive races, including the U.S. Senate and governor's contests, and could signal a broader shift in political power in Texas and nationally.