Trump Blames Cornyn and Rove as Paxton Trails in Texas Senate Race

Key points

• Trump posted on Truth Social that Cornyn and Rove are 'doing everything possible' to make it harder for Paxton to win, calling them 'weak and ineffective political hacks.'
• The Texas Senate race has become the most expensive of the 2026 cycle, with Republican spending exceeding $370 million, including over $150 million from Elon Musk via the Senate Leadership Fund.
• Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, currently holds a lead in the low-to-mid single digits in recent polls.
• Trump has visited Texas three times in one month to support Paxton, whom he previously endorsed over Cornyn in a contentious primary, despite describing Paxton as 'controversial.'
• Cornyn’s office and Rove did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding Trump’s accusations.

Background

This development follows a series of leaked audio recordings from late September and early October, in which Paxton privately blamed Cornyn, high gas prices, and the Iran war for his polling struggles. Earlier reports indicated that national Republicans had poured over $100 million into the race, yet Talarico maintained a narrow lead. The current public feud escalates previous internal tensions, where Paxton had criticized Washington-based campaign control and Cornyn’s lack of support, while Trump had previously called Rove a 'loser' and urged Fox News to stop featuring him.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasizes the personal nature of Trump’s attack, highlighting his direct confrontation with Cornyn and Rove as a preemptive move to deflect blame for a potential loss. CNN focuses on the financial dimension, detailing how Musk’s $150 million contribution and the resulting ad surge failed to secure a decisive Republican lead, noting that Democrats initially out-advised Republicans in the summer. CNBC frames the situation as a high-stakes gamble, pointing out that Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and that Trump’s endorsement of Paxton over the four-term incumbent Cornyn was a major risk that is now yielding uncertain results. All sources agree on the tightness of the race and the significant financial resources deployed, but differ on whether the primary issue is internal party sabotage (Politico) or the sheer cost and competitive nature of the race (CNN/CNBC).

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas Senate race could determine whether Republicans maintain their majority in the Senate. A loss in a state that voted for Trump by 14 points in 2024 would signal a significant shift in the political landscape and potentially impact the broader 2026 midterm elections. The public rift between Trump and establishment figures like Cornyn and Rove also indicates deepening fractures within the Republican Party that could affect future coalition-building and policy priorities.

What to watch

Watch for responses from Cornyn and Rove to Trump’s accusations. Monitor upcoming polling data to see if the massive ad spending from Texas PAC and other GOP groups has closed the gap with Talarico. Track any further campaign visits by Trump to Texas as Election Day approaches. Look for potential legal or ethical challenges regarding the massive spending and the influence of billionaire donors like Musk on the race.