Trump Blames Cornyn and Rove for Paxton's Texas Senate Struggle

Key points

• Trump posted on Truth Social that Cornyn and Rove are 'weak and ineffective' and should be blamed if Paxton loses to Talarico.
• Cornyn, who lost the primary to Paxton in May, has not endorsed him and previously called him a 'poor campaigner.'
• Rove, a former Bush adviser, has not endorsed Paxton and previously suggested the race would be over if Cornyn had won the primary.
• Both Cornyn and Rove have broken party ranks in a separate Texas railroad commissioner race, citing racist comments by the Republican candidate.
• Talarico has raised $64 million in the third quarter, more than any U.S. Senate candidate on record, while GOP spending in the race has topped $370 million.

Background

The Texas Senate race has become a major battleground in the 2026 midterms, with Talarico leading in polls despite heavy Republican spending. Earlier coverage noted that Paxton privately blamed Washington control and high gas prices for his struggles, while national Republicans poured over $100 million into the race. The current dispute underscores the deep fractures within the Texas GOP, as Trump's endorsement of Paxton over Cornyn has created lasting tensions.

How outlets are covering it

The Texas Tribune and Politico emphasize Trump's direct attack on Cornyn and Rove, framing it as a preemptive blame-casting move. CNBC highlights the financial scale of the race, noting that GOP spending has eclipsed Democratic spending by nearly $235 million, yet Talarico maintains a lead. CNN's live updates focus on broader midterm trends, including Musk's massive donations to super PACs, but do not detail the specific Cornyn-Rove dispute as extensively. All sources agree that the race is unusually competitive for a traditionally red state, with Talarico's fundraising and moderate appeal challenging Republican dominance.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas Senate race could determine whether Democrats gain majority control of the U.S. Senate. Trump's public blame-casting signals deep internal GOP divisions, which may impact voter turnout and unity in other competitive races. The massive financial investment by Republicans, including Musk's $89 million donation to his super PAC, underscores the stakes, yet the polling gap suggests that money alone may not secure the seat. This race also reflects broader national trends of Republican vulnerability in traditionally safe states.

What to watch

Early voting begins on October 19, with polls showing Talarico leading by single digits. Trump has urged GOP voters to switch support to Paxton, while Cornyn and Rove have not responded to requests for comment. The race will likely remain competitive through Election Day, with both sides intensifying efforts to sway moderate and undecided voters. The outcome will have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and the broader 2026 midterm cycle.