Trump Hits Record Low Approval as Democrats Lead Midterm Races

Key points

• Trump’s net approval dropped to -23.0, the lowest for any president since Harry Truman at this stage of a term.
• Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9.1 points, giving them a 91% chance to win the House and 69% for the Senate.
• Petrol prices have surged to an average of $4.48 per gallon, up from a low of $2.99 in late August.
• 57.9% of Americans oppose the Iran war, with net support at -24.4.
• Republicans face tight races in key Senate states like Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, where Democrats now lead.

Background

Recent weeks saw the Federal Reserve raise interest rates for the first time in three years, defying Trump’s calls for lower borrowing costs. This hawkish shift, combined with rising inflation and energy shocks from the Middle East, has intensified economic anxiety among voters ahead of the midterms.

How outlets are covering it

The Conversation emphasizes the structural disadvantage Republicans face due to gerrymandering and the high cost of the Iran war, noting that Democrats need only a 3-4 point margin to win the House. CNN’s polling highlights the deepening economic woes, linking the drop in approval directly to worsened financial conditions for average Americans. Both sources agree that the current trajectory favors Democrats, but The Conversation notes that a sudden drop in petrol prices could improve Republican chances, while CNN focuses on the sustained pain of high inflation.

Why it matters

The November 3 midterms will determine whether Congress can check the executive branch. A Democratic sweep would likely lead to increased scrutiny of the Iran war and economic policies, while a Republican hold would signal resilience despite low approval ratings. The outcome hinges on whether energy prices stabilize before election day.

What to watch

Analysts will monitor petrol prices and inflation data in the coming weeks. If the commodity price of petrol continues to fall, as it did slightly in early September, Republican chances in the Senate may improve. Conversely, sustained high prices will likely cement Democratic control of both chambers.