Trump’s Approval Collapses to 37% as Midterm Wave Threatens GOP Control

Key points

• Trump’s net approval is positive in only eight states, including Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho, according to Civiqs.
• He holds negative net approval in 42 states, including all six competitive Senate races in Alaska, Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
• Emerson College polling places Trump’s approval at 37%, his lowest recorded level, with Democrats leading the generic ballot by 10 points.
• Silver Bulletin data shows his net approval at minus 22.8%, with 49.5% of Americans strongly disapproving of his performance.
• His approval among independents is 27%, and among voters under 30, it is 35%, indicating significant erosion of 2024 coalition support.

Background

Recent archive coverage highlights a growing trend of Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump in advertisements due to his lagging approval ratings. Additionally, earlier polls indicated that 80% of Americans desire substantial change in governance, with economic concerns dominating voter priorities. Young voters who supported Trump in 2024 have recently shifted toward Democrats or abstention, driven by economic dissatisfaction and cultural issues.

How outlets are covering it

USA TODAY emphasizes the geographic scope of Trump’s unpopularity, highlighting that he has lost support in traditionally red states like Kentucky and South Carolina, and that all competitive Senate races are in negative territory. New York Magazine provides a deeper longitudinal analysis, noting that his approval has steadily eroded throughout 2026, dropping below 40% in April. It contrasts his low overall numbers with the high loyalty of his MAGA base, which still gives him 94% approval, but points out that support among 2024 voters and conservatives has softened. The magazine also highlights the intensity of disapproval, with nearly half of Americans strongly disapproving, a metric that has worsened since the start of the year.

Why it matters

The depth of Trump’s approval slump suggests a significant risk for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterms. With Democrats leading generic ballots by a wide margin and key swing states showing negative ratings for the president, the GOP faces a potential loss of its House majority and critical Senate seats. The erosion of support among independents and younger voters indicates that the coalition built in 2024 is fracturing, potentially reshaping the political landscape for the remainder of Trump’s term and beyond.

What to watch

The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. With approximately 5% of voters still undecided, many of whom are independents, the final outcome may hinge on turnout and late-breaking developments. Analysts suggest that while Trump’s MAGA base may bolster turnout in red districts, it is unlikely to offset the broader national trend of disapproval. The results will determine whether Democrats can achieve a 'blue wave' or if Republicans can hold onto their slim House majority despite the president's low popularity.