UNH Poll Shows Janoo Leading Scott by Six Points in Vermont Governor's Race

Key points

• The Green Mountain State Poll, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, shows Amanda Janoo leading Phil Scott 49% to 43% if the election were held today.
• Scott's overall approval rating has dropped from 67% at the end of the pandemic to 47%, with his support among Democrats reaching its lowest recorded level.
• The poll surveyed 835 likely voters between September 17 and 21, with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points; 60% of respondents identified as Democrats.
• In other statewide races, former Lt. Gov. Molly Gray leads John Rodgers by 14 points, and Rep. Becca Balint leads Gerald Malloy by 36 points.
• Scott's campaign argues the poll over-represents Democrats, while Janoo's campaign emphasizes her progressive economic platform and strong fundraising momentum.

Background

Vermont has elected a Republican governor five consecutive times, with Phil Scott winning by wide margins in 2016 and 2024 despite the state's deep-blue reputation. Scott, a moderate Republican, previously relied on support from Democratic voters who favored his fiscal conservatism and social liberalism. However, recent national trends show Democrats gaining ground in midterms, with generic ballot leads widening in September 2026. Janoo, a 39-year-old economist, won the Democratic primary in August 2026, defeating Aly Richards, and has since increased her fundraising and visibility.

How outlets are covering it

WCAX and WPTZ report the UNH poll results, noting Janoo's lead and Scott's declining approval among Democrats. WPTZ highlights that 60% of poll respondents identified as Democrats, a factor Scott's campaign cites as skewing the results. Spectrum News provides deeper context on Scott's self-identification as a 'progressive' Republican and Janoo's classically progressive platform, noting Scott's veto of Act 250 and Janoo's push for taxes on the wealthy. The Milton Independent offers a neutral overview of the candidates and other statewide races without emphasizing the poll's implications. Experts cited by WCAX, such as Sean McKinley and Matt Dickinson, describe the race as fluid but concerning for Scott, citing national anti-Trump sentiment and local affordability issues.

Why it matters

The poll signals a potential shift in Vermont's political landscape, where a Republican governor has historically won by leveraging cross-party support. If Janoo wins, it would mark the first Democratic governor in Vermont since 2010 and reflect broader national trends of Democratic gains in midterms. The race also highlights tensions between moderate Republicans and progressive Democrats, as well as the impact of national political sentiment on local elections.

What to watch

The campaign will likely focus on voter turnout and addressing affordability concerns in the final six weeks before the November 3 election. Scott's campaign may emphasize his record and moderate stance, while Janoo will push her progressive economic agenda. Additional polls and debates may provide further insights into voter sentiment as the election approaches.