Data suggests Bills' halftime defensive shift broke Drake Maye's 2025 season

Key points

• Maye's completion rate fell from 71.8% to 64.4%, and his passer rating dropped from 111.9 to 88.1 after the second half of the Week 15 Bills game.
• His Expected Points Added (EPA) per play plummeted from +0.286 to +0.068, a level comparable to rookie Bo Nix or Geno Smith's final season with Seattle.
• The Bills shifted from single-high safety coverage (42.9% of dropbacks) to two-high looks (86.7%) at halftime, a scheme Maye struggled against for the rest of the year.
• Maye's passer rating against two-high safety alignments was 89.2, compared to 110.9 against single-high coverage.
• Despite facing top-ranked defenses in the playoffs, Maye's decline continued against lower-ranked teams like the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins in the final regular-season games.

Background

The Patriots are currently 1-2 and face the 3-0 Bills at Highmark Stadium this Sunday, a rematch of the pivotal 2025 game. Maye has thrown four interceptions in 2026, all against two-high safety alignments. The Patriots' offensive line has been dealing with injuries, and the team is looking to stabilize its quarterback play after a turbulent 2025 season.

Why it matters

Understanding the specific defensive adjustment that triggered Maye's decline is crucial for the Patriots' coaching staff to prepare for the upcoming rematch. If the Bills replicate their two-high safety strategy, it could expose Maye's current vulnerabilities and potentially decide the outcome of a high-stakes AFC East divisional game.

What to watch

The Patriots and Bills will meet again on Sunday at Highmark Stadium. Analysts will watch closely to see if Maye can overcome the two-high safety coverage that has plagued him since last season, and whether the Patriots can limit turnovers to compete with the Bills' new run-heavy identity.