SportsLine Model Projects Rams to Edge Broncos in Week 3

Key points

• The SportsLine Projection Model predicts the Rams will beat the Broncos 22-21 in Sunday Night Football, with the Broncos covering the 2.5-point spread in 54% of simulations.
• The model projects the Lions to defeat the Jets 36-23, with the Lions covering the 6.5-point spread in 66% of simulations.
• The Chiefs are projected to beat the Dolphins 32-16, covering the 11.5-point spread in 60% of simulations.
• The Seahawks are projected to beat the Commanders 32-17, covering the 7-point spread in 64% of simulations.
• The model identifies the Colts, Giants, Steelers, Cowboys, and Broncos as underdogs expected to cover their respective spreads in over 50% of simulations.

Background

This is the third week of the 2026 NFL season. SportsLine has previously released model-based predictions for Week 1 and Week 2, including exact score predictions and spread picks. The model has a strong track record, reportedly up over $7,000 for $100 players since inception. Week 2 predictions included the Seahawks and Buccaneers as top bets.

How outlets are covering it

CBS Sports presents the SportsLine model’s predictions as a tool for bettors, emphasizing the model’s 10,000-simulation methodology and highlighting specific games where underdogs are expected to cover. ESPN’s source was inaccessible due to a 403 error, so no perspective could be extracted. Fantasy Points focuses on fantasy football matchups and DFS strategies, noting that early-season matchup data is less certain and recommending contrarian plays for large-field tournaments. The outlets differ in focus: CBS Sports centers on betting odds and model projections, while Fantasy Points emphasizes fantasy football and DFS angles.

Why it matters

These predictions provide a data-driven framework for bettors and fantasy football players to evaluate Week 3 matchups. The model’s emphasis on underdogs covering in close games offers potential value for those looking to bet against the spread. The narrow margin in the Rams-Broncos game highlights the unpredictability of early-season NFL games.

What to watch

The NFL Week 3 games will be played on Sunday, September 27, and Monday, September 28. The results will be compared against the SportsLine model’s predictions to assess its accuracy. Fantasy football players will use the matchups to make lineup decisions, particularly focusing on contrarian plays as suggested by Fantasy Points.