The Improbable Odds of a Perfect NCAA Tournament Bracket

The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA tournament bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion if every game is treated as a coin flip. However, if using a statistical model that predicts regular-season games correctly 75% of the time, the odds improve to 1 in 10-40 billion. The average player's accuracy for an average game is 66.7%, resulting in odds of 1 in 120.2 billion. Winners of the Bracket Challenge Game have averaged just 49.8 correct games in their brackets in the past eight years.