Erdogan's Role in the Israel-Hamas War and Gaza Crisis

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a challenging position due to the timing and scope of the Israel-Hamas war. Initially shocked by Hamas' violence, Erdogan reached out to Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog, but shifted his position due to public support for Hamas in Turkey and the Israeli military's offensive. Erdogan has sought a mediation role, reaching out to regional leaders and international figures, but has been excluded from direct communication with US President Joe Biden. The US-Turkey relationship has been strained over issues such as support for Syrian Kurdish forces and Turkey's request to purchase F-16s. The conflict in Gaza has further strained relations, with Erdogan criticizing the US deployment of aircraft carriers and expressing growing mistrust of the West. Erdogan's support for Hamas is likely to strengthen, but he is also aware that a major conflagration in the region would be detrimental to Turkey. Relations with Israel and the US may deteriorate further, with demonstrations in Turkey targeting US installations. Erdogan's anti-American rhetoric has diminished trust in him, and he appears to have excluded himself from US-led negotiations.