2026 Midterms: Voters Weigh Trump’s Approval and Cost of Living as Polls Close

Key points

• AP exit polls show cost of living and corruption as the primary issues driving voter decisions.
• Democrats require a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control of Congress.
• A federal judge blocked the Trump administration from sending lists of alleged non-citizen voters to election officials in California and Washington.
• Ballot scanning issues in New York’s Westchester County and paper shortages in Chicago caused delays but did not halt voting.
• Trump’s approval rating stands at 38%, a historic low for a president in a midterm election cycle.

Background

The 2026 midmarks the first midterm of Trump’s second term, following a period where the administration shifted policy stances to support vulnerable Republican candidates in September. Previous coverage noted the DOJ’s unprecedented deployment of 1,000 federal monitors to polling places, which critics described as an intimidation tactic. The current election follows a redistricting process that reshaped approximately one-third of congressional districts, though the national House map remained largely balanced.

How outlets are covering it

Axios emphasizes the legal battles surrounding voter fraud and the White House’s offensive stance in the Alaska Senate race. AP News highlights the economic frustration, noting that inflation has risen to 3.7% and consumer sentiment is lower than during recent recessions. CBS News focuses on the historical trend of the president’s party losing House seats in midterms, noting that Trump’s approval is lower than George W. Bush’s in 2006. Yahoo News details the logistical challenges, including ballot shortages in Chicago and Kansas, and the deployment of AI 'war rooms' by OpenAI and Anthropic to prevent misinformation.

Why it matters

The outcome will determine whether Democrats can initiate investigations and subpoenas against the Trump administration or if Republicans can maintain legislative gridlock. A Democratic victory in even one chamber would significantly constrain Trump’s ability to advance his judicial and executive agenda in his final two years in office.

What to watch

Analysts are watching for delays in race calls due to outstanding ballots and legal challenges. The results in Indiana and Kentucky, which closed first, are being used as early indicators for the rest of the night. The final tally will determine if a third impeachment effort against Trump or his cabinet becomes a viable political strategy for Democrats.