Cook Report Downgrades Graham’s Senate Odds as Trump Rallies in South Carolina

Key points

• Cook Political Report shifted the South Carolina Senate race from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican' on Tuesday.
• President Trump held a rally in Clemson, South Carolina, on Wednesday to support Darline Graham.
• Graham is seeking a full term after being appointed to the seat following her brother Lindsey Graham's death.
• A Trafalgar Group poll shows Graham leading by only 3 points, while the state's gubernatorial race is much wider.
• Republicans have spent over $22.5 million in the race since August, compared to $17.1 million from Democrats.

Background

South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. The race became competitive after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, leading to his sister Darline Graham's appointment. Previous Cook Report downgrades in September and October reflect growing concerns about the incumbent's viability. The current midterm cycle features intense spending in traditionally Republican states as Democrats seek to expand their map.

How outlets are covering it

The Daily Beast highlights the panic within the Republican Party as they scramble to defend a seat once considered safe. Fox News emphasizes the broader midterm context, noting that Democrats are targeting traditionally Republican states and that likely voters prefer Democratic House candidates by 11 percentage points. MS NOW focuses on the internal GOP anxiety, citing an anonymous official who described the lack of voter cohesion around Graham as a 'drag at the top of the ticket.' MS NOW also notes that some Republicans view spending in South Carolina as 'political malpractice' given the state's historical red lean.

Why it matters

The South Carolina Senate race is a bellwether for Republican control of the chamber. If Graham loses, it could signal broader vulnerabilities in the GOP's Senate majority. The intense spending and high-profile campaign visits indicate that the race is more competitive than expected, potentially affecting resource allocation in other key midterm races.

What to watch

The campaign will continue in the final weeks before the November 3 election. Trump is expected to make further appearances in South Carolina, while Democrats will likely increase their spending and high-profile visits to support Annie Andrews. Polling and ad spending will be closely monitored to gauge the race's trajectory.