Israel Election Leaves No Clear Winner, With 600,000 Absentee Ballots to Be Counted

Key points

• Exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's opposition tied at 51 seats each, with Palestinian parties projected to win 16-18 seats, up from 10 in 2022.
• Voter turnout reached 77%, the highest in over two decades, with 79.9% of IDF personnel voting, up 6.2% from 2022.
• Netanyahu called for a 'strong, right-wing national government' and rejected any coalition with Palestinian parties, while Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to 'use Israel's security for political ends.'
• 600,000-650,000 absentee ballots from soldiers, diplomats, and others remain uncounted, with final results expected Thursday.
• If no bloc secures 61 seats, President Isaac Herzog will name a candidate to form a government, a process that could take weeks or lead to new elections.

Background

This election follows Israel's first national vote since the October 2023 Hamas attack, which sparked wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu's coalition had peaked at 68 seats before disintegrating over the past year. The 2022 election saw 70% turnout, and Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to coalition failures. The current vote is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu's 17-year rule and the character of the state.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian and AP News agree on the core facts: no clear winner, tied blocs at 51 seats, and a surge in Palestinian party representation. The Guardian emphasizes the uncertainty and the potential for weeks of coalition haggling, noting that exit polls are 'notoriously imprecise' and often revised. AP News frames the result as a 'rebuke' to Netanyahu's far-right coalition but not an outright defeat, highlighting that Netanyahu's Likud party may still be the largest single party. The Guardian notes that Netanyahu's rhetoric against Palestinian parties could complicate coalition talks for Eisenkot, while AP stresses that Netanyahu's inflammatory stance could alienate potential partners and set the stage for a new vote where he might gain ground. Both outlets agree that the 600,000 absentee ballots will be crucial in determining the final outcome.

Why it matters

The outcome will determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or faces a new government, with significant implications for Israel's domestic politics, its relationship with Palestinian citizens, and its regional conflicts. The surge in Palestinian party representation could redraw Israel's political landscape, forcing mainstream parties to engage with Arab-led factions for the first time in years. The uncertainty could also lead to a minority government or new elections, further destabilizing a country already strained by war and international isolation.

What to watch

Final results will be released Thursday after 600,000 absentee ballots are counted. President Isaac Herzog will then name a candidate to form a government, likely Netanyahu if Likud is the largest party. Coalition talks could take weeks, with Eisenkot potentially needing to negotiate with Palestinian parties like Ra'am and the Joint List. If no majority is formed, Israel may face new elections, as it did five times between 2019 and 2022.