Polls Show Record Anti-Trump Sentiment as Democrats Widen Midterm Lead

Key points

• Marist University poll: 45% of voters see the midterm vote as mainly against Trump; 54% of independents and 80% of Democrats share this view.
• NBC News poll: 43% of registered voters want to send a signal of opposition to Trump, a record high since 1998, surpassing levels from 2018 and 2022.
• Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans by 12 points in the Marist poll, up 2 points from May; YouGov shows a 14-point lead among likely voters.
• Approval ratings: Trump’s approval sits at 39% in Marist, but Reuters/Ipsos recorded a career-low 32% on Sept. 21, and Economist/YouGov saw a drop to 35%.
• Economic factors: Gas prices have risen to $4.47 per gallon, contributing to voter distrust of the administration’s handling of the economy.

Background

This polling surge follows a contentious summer marked by Supreme Court rulings on mail voting restrictions and redistricting, as well as a Republican convention where Trump emphasized personal loyalty over party platform. Earlier in September, early voting began amid concerns over election integrity and rising costs, setting the stage for a high-intensity campaign focused on opposition to the White House.

How outlets are covering it

While all sources agree on the negative trajectory for Trump, they differ in emphasis and magnitude. USA TODAY and Marist University highlight the 'vote against' framing as a plurality (45%) and note a 12-point Democratic lead. The Washington Post, citing NBC News, frames the 43% opposition figure as a historical record, emphasizing the intensity of the protest vote compared to previous midterms. Economist/YouGov provides a broader context, noting that 59% of Americans believe the U.S. standing in the world has worsened since Trump’s return to office, and that 51% rate his administration’s personnel choices poorly. The Washington Post also notes that despite the negative sentiment, Democrats’ lead in some polls is smaller than the national average, suggesting potential challenges in converting sentiment into seat majorities due to redistricting.

Why it matters

The convergence of low approval ratings and high opposition sentiment suggests that the 2026 midterms may result in a significant loss of power for the Republican Party. If Democrats capitalize on this momentum, they could gain control of both chambers of Congress, potentially blocking Trump’s legislative agenda and initiating oversight investigations. The record-low approval ratings also indicate a hardened electorate that may be less susceptible to late-stage persuasion, making the outcome of the midterms a critical test of the administration’s remaining political capital.

What to watch

Attention will now turn to the final weeks of the campaign, where candidates may attempt to shift the narrative from opposition to policy specifics. Watch for developments in the ongoing litigation over mail voting restrictions and redistricting maps, which could impact voter access and turnout. Additionally, monitor any shifts in gas prices or foreign policy developments, such as the Iran conflict, which may influence undecided voters in the final stretch before November.