Polls Show Trump Approval at Record Lows Ahead of Midterms

Key points

• Civiqs tracker shows Trump has positive net approval in only 11 states, all of which supported him in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
• Wyoming is his strongest state with a +16% net approval rating; other positive states range from +2% to +10%.
• Reuters/Ipsos and AP-NORC polls show national approval at 32% and 31% respectively, matching or setting career lows.
• Hispanic approval has dropped to 24%, down from 48% in 2024 and 36% in 2020, according to Reuters/Ipsos.
• Only 17% approve of his handling of the cost of living, with 65% blaming his policies for high prices, per AP-NORC.
• Polling averages from RealClearPolitics, NYT, and Silver Bulletin show approval between 37-38.5% and disapproval near 60%.

Background

This decline follows a period of political theater, including Trump's proposals to rename New Mexico to 'New America' and Lake Ontario to 'Lake America,' which were dismissed as legally unfeasible and politically distracting. Those stunts occurred amid growing domestic concerns, now reflected in these polling numbers. The current drop in approval, especially among key demographics like Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024, signals a significant shift in public sentiment ahead of the midterms.

How outlets are covering it

USA TODAY and The Guardian emphasize the breadth of the decline, noting that even conservative states are showing loss of support and that Trump is losing independent and Latino voters. The Guardian highlights Trump's dismissal of the polls, where he blamed the media. AP News focuses specifically on the economic dimension, noting that his economic approval mirrors Biden's low point in 2022. Mother Jones underscores the reversal in public sentiment on cost of living, noting that Trump campaigned on lowering prices but is now blamed by 65% of Americans for high prices, with 70% saying his policies were 'worse than expected.' All sources agree on the severity of the drop but differ in emphasis: USA TODAY and The Guardian focus on the overall approval and demographic shifts, while AP and Mother Jones zero in on the economic drivers.

Why it matters

These record-low approval ratings, especially in the final month before the midterms, suggest a significant risk for the Republican Party's ability to maintain or gain control of Congress. The loss of support among key demographics, such as Hispanic voters, and the widespread blame for economic conditions could translate into a major shift in the House and Senate races. The consistency of these results across multiple polling organizations and averages indicates a sustained trend rather than a temporary dip, potentially reshaping the political landscape for the next two years.

What to watch

The focus will now shift to the final stretch of the midterm campaign, where early voting is already underway in many states. Republicans may attempt to distance themselves from the president on issues like immigration and the economy to protect local candidates. The impact of the economic dissatisfaction and demographic shifts will be measured in the November 3 results, which will determine control of Congress and set the stage for the next political cycle.