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Economy

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Warsh defends Fed independence as inflation, AI effects come under Senate scrutiny
economy3 hours ago

Warsh defends Fed independence as inflation, AI effects come under Senate scrutiny

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faced Senate questions on how AI spending could affect inflation, his communications with President Trump, and how the Fed will judge whether inflation is temporary or persistent, all while signaling a more reserved approach to future rate moves. He highlighted five new task forces—on inflation framework, AI’s impact on jobs and productivity, and the Fed’s bond holdings—to study data sources and evolving conditions, and he cautioned that inflation readings are imperfect even as recent data show some easing.

Treasury to Issue Gold $1 Coins Featuring Trump for America's 250th Anniversary
politics5 hours ago

Treasury to Issue Gold $1 Coins Featuring Trump for America's 250th Anniversary

The U.S. Treasury says it will mint gold $1 coins bearing Donald Trump’s image to celebrate the nation’s 250th anniversary, a move supported by the administration but criticized by some lawmakers as inappropriate for living presidents on currency; the plan relies on the Circulating Collectible Coin Redesign Act of 2020, with pricing and timing still undecided and notes featuring Trump’s signature requiring legislative approval.

China's growth slows to 4.3% in Q2, undershooting targets as domestic demand weakens
business6 hours ago

China's growth slows to 4.3% in Q2, undershooting targets as domestic demand weakens

China's Q2 GDP rose 4.3% year-on-year, below Beijing's 4.5–5% target after 5% growth in Q1, signaling weak domestic demand even as exports surged (June exports up about 27% year over year). The release, the first full quarter since the Iran war began, marks the slowest quarterly expansion since late 2022. Domestic headwinds include a property slump and sluggish consumer spending (June retail sales +1%, new-home prices -0.1%). Some analysts say the miss reflects the lower target rather than a sharp downturn, though external demand remains a bright spot amid higher energy costs.

Fed Official Sees Policy Positioned to Weather AI-Driven Inflation
business6 hours ago

Fed Official Sees Policy Positioned to Weather AI-Driven Inflation

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said policy remains well positioned to bring inflation back to 2% even as AI-driven demand could push prices higher. He expects AI-related supply-demand imbalances to recede as more supply comes online, with inflation peaking and then easing in coming quarters. Williams projects inflation around 3.25% by year-end and returning to 2% by 2028, as shelter and energy inflation trend down and the labor market stays resilient. He also cautioned that the magnitude and duration of AI’s inflation effects are uncertain, that policymakers are divided on near-term rate moves, and that tariffs are not expected to pressure consumer prices.

Energy price drop cools wholesale inflation, but risk of renewed pressure looms
economy7 hours ago

Energy price drop cools wholesale inflation, but risk of renewed pressure looms

Wholesale inflation cooled in June as energy prices fell sharply (gasoline down about 12%), with the Producer Price Index dipping 0.3% for the month and 5.5% year over year; core PPI slowed to 4.6% YoY. However, relief may be temporary as Middle East tensions revive oil prices and inflation pressures, including AI-related chip costs and electronics pricing, persist. Fed official Kevin Warsh cautioned against reading one data point as mission accomplished.

economy8 hours ago

June PPI cools after energy price drop, easing Fed uncertainty

U.S. headline producer prices fell 0.3% in June—the first monthly drop since August 2025—driven by a 6.4% month‑to‑month decline in final-demand energy goods, while the core PPI rose 0.2%. Year over year, headline PPI was up 5.5% and core PPI 4.7%. The softer print suggests the Fed may have room to postpone immediate rate hikes, but oil-price volatility and renewed geopolitical tensions (notably around the Strait of Hormuz) could push inflation back higher in July.

Inflation Likely Peaked, Williams Says; Fed Policy Positioned for 2% Path
economy10 hours ago

Inflation Likely Peaked, Williams Says; Fed Policy Positioned for 2% Path

New York Fed President John Williams argued inflation has likely peaked and should ease toward 2% over the coming years, forecasting about 3.25% by year‑end as tariffs, oil shocks and AI-driven spending ease and more supply comes online. He emphasized a solid labor market, anchored inflation expectations, and a policy stance well positioned to reach the 2% goal, even as markets still price in a possible rate hike by year’s end; CPI fell 0.4% in June but inflation remains above target.

Dimon: The Wealth Gap Is Real and Demands Action
economy10 hours ago

Dimon: The Wealth Gap Is Real and Demands Action

Jamie Dimon says the U.S. wealth gap is real and frustrating for many, citing Fed data that show the bottom 50% own about $4.27 trillion of the $174 trillion in wealth while the top 0.1% hold roughly $25 trillion. He argues lower-income Americans have been left behind, calls for bipartisan public policy (backed by unions) to lift living standards, notes AI is accelerating asset concentration, and says he doesn’t plan to run for president.

Yields climb ahead of June PPI release
economy13 hours ago

Yields climb ahead of June PPI release

Treasury yields rose ahead of the June producer price index data, with the 10-year at 4.612%, the 2-year at 4.225% and the 30-year at 5.118%, as traders await the PPI print; consensus expects June PPI to be flat with a 0.3% core gain after a cooler CPI raised hopes for a potential Fed rate cut later this year.

Warsh pledges 2% inflation goal, signals higher-for-longer policy
economy13 hours ago

Warsh pledges 2% inflation goal, signals higher-for-longer policy

Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to 2% and signaling a higher-for-longer stance on rates. He argued there is no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation and that policy must remain restrictive as prices move toward the target, even as June’s CPI showed inflation cooling to 3.5%. Warsh downplayed one data print as insufficient to claim victory, outlined plans for five new Fed task forces to improve functions like communication and data collection, and stressed he will follow the law and the data—regardless of political pressure to cut rates.

China’s growth slows to multi-decade lows as domestic demand falters
economy15 hours ago

China’s growth slows to multi-decade lows as domestic demand falters

China’s Q2 GDP rose 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest since the early 1990s GDP data began (apart from Covid distortions) and below Beijing’s 4.5–5% 2026 target. Domestic demand shows weakness: retail sales +1% in June, fixed-asset investment down 5.7% in the first half, while industrial production rose 5.3% in June. Exports jumped 27% YoY in June, but net exports remain negative due to higher imports, underscoring reliance on trade amid a property slowdown and deflation risks. Analysts warn that monthly indicators point to a bleaker picture than the quarterly GDP, with data gaps and foreign demand cited as partial explanations.

Oil spikes as Hormuz toll proposal shakes global markets
economy21 hours ago

Oil spikes as Hormuz toll proposal shakes global markets

Oil prices jumped to about $86 a barrel after Trump floated a 20% toll for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, amid Iran’s attacks on vessels and U.S. strikes; Gulf states are exploring bypass routes via pipelines, and analysts say the disruption could persist with prices potentially moving higher in the near term, though some forecasts expect longer-term shifts away from Hormuz as pipeline routes expand.

China’s growth cools to 4.3% as investment slump deepens
economy21 hours ago

China’s growth cools to 4.3% as investment slump deepens

China’s economy grew 4.3% in Q2, the slowest pace in over three years, as urban fixed-asset investment fell 5.7% in the first half. June saw retail sales rise 1% and industrial output advance 5.3%, signaling a mixed rebound amid weak domestic demand. With Beijing’s full-year target at 4.5–5% and growth likely undershooting it, policymakers are expected to roll out stimulus in Q3, potentially including a rate cut to spur investment, while unemployment hovered around 5% in June.